In September I played mostly HU hypers on Party Poker, but I am thinking about finding another site (probably Stars) to play at. I do not have any rakeback deal and the rake is outrageous. Besides that HU hypers are only available up to $50s. I did have a positive roi though, but only over like 650 games.
Does anyone have a positive roi in $10s/$20s/$50s over a big sample at Party Poker pre-rb?
[1] Executive Summary
No.
[2] Sensitivity Analysis:
Opponent player pool would need to be 100% tard fish to beat this rake pre rake-back.
Quite possible given savvy players probably wouldn't play hyper games with rake this high.
[3] Breakeven win rate required:
w = (ROI + 1) / (2 - 2r)
@ r = 6.8% & ROI = 0%
w = (0 + 1) / (2 - 2 * 0.068) = 53.6%
[4] Benchmark win rates @ hypers:
Winning players have experimentally achieved 2-3% ROI @ hypers @ ~ 2% rake.
w = (ROI + 1) / (2 - 2r)
@ r = 2% & ROI = 2%
w = (0.02 + 1) / (2 - 2 * 0.02) = 52.0%
@ r = 2% & ROI = 3%
w = (0.03 + 1) / (2 - 2 * 0.02) = 52.6%
[5] ROI that would be achieved if win rate calculated in [3] was achieved at normal ~2% rake
ROI = w * (1 - 2r) - (1 - w)
@ r = 2% & w = 53.6%
ROI = 0.536 * (1 - 2 * 0.02) - (1 - 0.536) = 5.1% > [2-3%]
[6] References:
I've worked through these calcs in previous posts:
http://www.husng.com/content/rake-beatable-beginner
http://www.husng.com/content/roi-and-micros-living
http://www.husng.com/content/hyper-turbos-roi-and-rake-starsfr
Hey cdon3822,
Thanks for the theoretical calculations. I agree it looks unbeatable.
On the other hand, I have a hard time understanding that a poker network want to charge such a high rake that they scare all regs away. If you can get twice as much action by lowering the rake by 40% you are still coming out ahead. Of course rb-deals also have to be taken into account etc. so calculating breakeven or optimum is not as simple as suggested.
So maybe I should rephrase the question. Do you know anybody that has a positive roi pre-rb at Party, or is there a way I can get Sharkscope to reveal that information to me? If I check the leaderboards, I either get it per site or per game format, not both, and the one for game format only includes Pokerstars (and one case for Fulltilt).
Would you really want to be a post rake back grinder who works for a tiny hourly rate while you make the house rich?
I haven't said what I want and will do, except I would like to know the answer to my question :-)