Sorry if this comes across as a dumb question. I'm trying to use some maths and pokerstove to see how wide I should call vs villian who shoves ATC on the button. I'd like some feedback as to whether I'm using the maths correctly.
I used pokerstove to find the equity of (% call) ranges vs ATC:
10%: 68.0%
20%: 63.6%
30%: 61.2%
40%: 59.5%
50%: 57.8%
etc.
So if villain shoves ATC at Z BBs, and we call 10% our expectation is:
90% of the time we lose 1 BB = -0.9BB
10% of the time we win our equity of the Z BBs and lose villain's equity of the Z BBs = (68.0%-32.0%)*Z => 10%*36%*Z
So if Z (effective stacks) = 25BB
-0.9BB from folding and +0.9 from our calling hands = net zero?
I did this for different calling ranges at it looks like at 25BBs the optimal calling % is about 55%! Can someone tell me if this is right or wrong?
I would also like to know if at 25BBs it is the best strategy to call 55% of hands vs a villain who shoves ATC on the button? Is this practical?
Will Tipton talks about this problem in his 2nd book :
Expert Heads Up No Limit Holdem Volume 2. (one of the last chapters)
This is how I understand it:
Your calculations are correct if you want to break-even against this player.
But the player who open shows every hand is a very bad player and you don't want to just break-even against him, you want to make profit, so you have to adjust your range and call much tighter or "wait for a better spot".
You fold all your marginal hands and pass up some marginal +EV spots and wait for a hand that will give you much higher +EV later in the game...
You can wait for more +EV spot if the stacks are deep enough, but when you have a short stack (less than 5-8bb) you have no other choice but to call according to your calculations.
"If you want to win, you must not lose!"