Hi guys,
I'm having some trouble calculating my Cnet Adj and I don't quite understand how it's influenced by hands that go to showdown without going allin, or non-sd hands.
For example: hyper hu match, 2 hands, 1 hand is all-in.
1st hand: Villain limps,Hero xb|| flop: H x, V x || turn: H bet 1bb, V call || river: H x, V x Hero wins 4bb (80 chips)
2nd hand: Hero limps and calls 3x raise || flop: V bets 6bb, H calls || turn: V shoves 14.5bb, H calls, Hero is favorite 96.59%
PT4 shows Cnet Adj 43.12, ROI adj 86.24.
Anyone has any idea? Thanks
Cnet adjusted only affects allin pots, in all others the cnet adjusted will be the same as real results. So for 1st hand cnet adjusted chips=real chips. In second hand, cnet adjusted = 96.59%*Pot. It converts from chips to $ using chipsearned/startingchips = %BI earned. So all it does is remove the variance associated with all-ins, while leaving everything else the same.
Cnet adjusted is your best predictor of future results. It's unbiased. When thinking about how your past results reflect your skill level, using cnet adjusted is strictly better than using real results. Cnet adjusted is still affected by variance, but it's less affected than real results by a large margin so that's why it's strictly better to use than real results.
Thanks for the quick answer Adam :)
What I dont get though is, if Cnet adj only affects all-in pots, how come after playing some hands I end up with 150chips, then I go all-in 2 hands in a row, favorite to win 56% and 53%, and my cnet adj is -15.90, in a 30$ hyper hu.
cnet adj only differs from real results in all-in pots--so it still counts all the chips you lost going down to 150. It's just that when you end up in the all-ins, rather than giving you the chip results from the flips, it gives you your equity share of the pot. So in your case you lost a bunch of chips, then had a small increase in cnet chips from the two flips--in the end you ended up down about 310 EV chips from start of tourney (since you were down about $16 out of ~$26 BI post 2% rake) which makes sense since you lost 350 before the flips, and gained about 20 chips in first all-in (300*.56 - 150) and another 20 chips in the second all-in (600*.53 - 300). So it all seems to add up :)
Ok, I think I understand how this works now. Thanks a lot :)
Hi Coffeeyay, I'm starting to get my head around all this but at the moment I'm using HM2 and was wondering if "Chips (EV Adjusted)" in HM2 is calculated the same way. And is this the same as "ChipEv" as shown in stats produced by Spinlyzer?
Everyone seems to be using PokerTracker when they post their spin and go results and I was wondering if in your opinion the reporting for Spin and Go's was more thorough with PokerTracker or does HM2 offer the same level of detail?
Many thanks for any light that you can shed on the matter.
I agree Chipev results are way better than $$$ results for estimate futures in comes,
But i calculate my standard deciation and it seems swongswing ia VERY low varince of EV
Do you think floping nut/turninigs draws/coolers are a big part of daily vraiance and EV allin are just a marginal results?
I was surpise about how low is variance of EV games when you play your agame
:)