I've played this guy a few times and he is pretty aggro and my notes say he is willing to check raise river with air. I also have a note where he shoved on me after the turn drawing dead on an AAJ board when I had an A.
Anyway, based on this history, what do you do here?
PokerStars Game #31950153757: Tournament #189379838, $110+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level I (10/20) - 2009/08/23 0:13:59 MT [2009/08/23 2:13:59 ET]
Table '189379838 1' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Fitz N ICE (1530 in chips)
Seat 2: rockymtnpro (1470 in chips)
Fitz N ICE: posts small blind 10
rockymtnpro: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to rockymtnpro [Ad Ts]
Fitz N ICE: raises 40 to 60
rockymtnpro: raises 140 to 200
Fitz N ICE: calls 140
*** FLOP *** [3c Ah Jc]
rockymtnpro: bets 160
Fitz N ICE: calls 160
*** TURN *** [3c Ah Jc] [Js]
rockymtnpro: checks
Fitz N ICE: checks
*** RIVER *** [3c Ah Jc Js] [Qc]
rockymtnpro: bets 220
Fitz N ICE: raises 950 to 1170 and is all-in
rockymtnpro ???
You are calling 890 to win 2940 so you need to win this ~30% of the time. You aren't really beating anything except a bluff, so you need to decide if this particular opponent is going to shove here with worse 30% of the time. I think that for the vast majority of opponents this is a fold, but it really depends on the villain and how much weight you want to put on your note.
Its not likely that you can get value on the river from the worse hand. I like c/c here, because he might bet with Q or try to bluff you, representing a flush.
Im not playing that stake but It looks like a 3 of a kind to me. I would fold.
Well given the way he has played against me, I called pretty quickly and he berated me afterwords:
rockymtnpro: calls 890 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (60) returned to Fitz N ICE
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Fitz N ICE: shows [Kc 3s] (two pair, Jacks and Threes)
rockymtnpro: shows [Ad Ts] (two pair, Aces and Jacks)
rockymtnpro collected 2940 from pot
OMG, he called 200 chips 3bet with K3o ???
After this hand I'd mark him "fish", doesnt matter what stats he had.
dont really like river bet, if he likes to float i c/c if not i c/f
I bet river as a blocker and hated life when he shoved. But since this guy has shoved crap like J4o preflop over my 3x at 25BB's or so, I don't like folding pairs against him too often.