This was the first hand of my 3rd match against villian, he did not appear to be a winning player imo. Anyway, what is villian repping here? My thoughts were he had flush or air, I considering shoving river over his bet since I had As but wasn't confident he would fold. Interested in opinions here, ty:
PokerStars Game #33806254671: Tournament #202170002, $110+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level I (10/20) - 2009/10/08 20:40:14 MT [2009/10/08 22:40:14 ET]
Table '202170002 1' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: rockymtnpro (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: AudacityLord (1500 in chips)
rockymtnpro: posts small blind 10
AudacityLord: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to rockymtnpro [As 5h]
rockymtnpro: raises 20 to 40
AudacityLord: calls 20
*** FLOP *** [5d 3s 9s]
AudacityLord: checks
rockymtnpro: bets 40
AudacityLord: raises 40 to 80
rockymtnpro: calls 40
*** TURN *** [5d 3s 9s] [Qs]
AudacityLord: bets 200
rockymtnpro: calls 200
*** RIVER *** [5d 3s 9s Qs] [Jd]
AudacityLord: bets 380
rockymtnpro??
He could easily have two pair or a set. I think that this should be a very easy fold at the river without any reads.
A turn shove doesn't seem terrible but I think that you might be a little deep for it.
is repping nothing and he can do that with a very wide range cause simply doesn't exist an hand strong enaugth to minc\r in that flop,I fold that overbet on turn,soving is an option and sure u make fold almost all the 9,but calling is definitly bad
Yeah, I think I should have shoved the turn. I timed down to like 3 seconds before I folded (I very rarely time down) and villian showed:
*** RIVER *** [5d 3s 9s Qs] [Jd]
AudacityLord: bets 380
rockymtnpro: folds
Uncalled bet (380) returned to AudacityLord
AudacityLord collected 640 from pot
AudacityLord: shows [4c 6s] (high card Queen)
Pissed me off cause I've only timed down like twice in the last month and both times I get shown bluffs.
Against an unknown here at the river I would guess that you are beat like 90%+++. I think you played it fine.
From a theoretical standpoint you probably want to be folding this hand AND have him bluffing.
I think the worst of the hero's calling range on the turn is a pair of 2's or 5's and a spade overcard, right?
That means on the river he's going to be making a -EV bluff because he isn't getting bluff odds given that you will be calling with the rest of your range.