Hiyaaa Guys!!
I would like to get some help and reassurance about my play. I started playing hypers 2 month ago and managed to get 4% ROI on the 7's over 4k sample. i was just wondering that if it is totally normal to have a 26 buyin swing in every 1k tourney so far. Currently I'm at 2,5% ROI. Maybe my sample size is still not big enough.
Any thoughts? :)
Cheers
Chip EV line headed in the right direction.
>= 20 buyin swings pretty standard in low margin, high variance hyper HUSNGs for winning players.
(Have a play with variance calculator if you want to desensitise yourself to the possible swings for given winrates over different sample sizes)
Statistically 4k sample is small but in reality you can't make photocopies of yourself and put in millions of tourneys volume, so after 2 months grind you have got to be happy that you're winning decent $$.
If you're still playing 7s and haven't withdrawn, you should definitely consider moving up with that bankroll to give yourself a chance to improve and make more $/h.
No big downswing in a 4k sample is kinda lucky. :) I started hyper turbo hu sng games with 80 BI under EV for the first 2k games. I was shocked, but it changed fortunately. Atm my worst downswing is 130 BI under EV in a 4k sample. So expect, that you'll facing high variance too probably sooner or later and it will be sick, but it seems you are doing well, so don't worry. Good luck at the 15's!
Thank you guys for the replies.
I was a bit confusing. The graph I posted is actually from the 15 $ level.
After how many games you can tell your "real" ROI? 5k or 10k? Or even more? And what you think of that 80 buyin under EV? In my opinion it is kinda too much. As a checked the leaderboards at different buyin levels, the average downswings were around 20 and 50 buyins. I just can't imagine to loose more If you are a thinking player and use one of these hyper HU strategies.
Hi, Mersenneary wrote a great article on this - How Confident Can You Be About Results Of A Sample With Certain Winrates. Take a look at that, it should really answer your question.