Really tight villain open jammed against me and I had no clue what to do in this spot. So posted the image from PT4 replayer with CoffeeHUD stats here and asking you guys to look at his stats and tell me what is the max EV play here, calling or folding and why is one better than the other.
i´d say you´re behind against better Ax or a PP. you can wait for a better opportunity to win the match. just grind him down.
The population open shoves around 25% of the time at 60s on stars. I assume it's fairly similiar at other stakes as I've seen little variance in this stat looking at 100s and 30s and 15s. That being said this is 1.5s so things could be much spewier so take this analysis with a grain of salt if you have a better idea of the population open shove.
So assuming 25%, we can adjust it down a little bit since he hasn't opened a button. However notice that we only had a sample size of 5 hands, and they were all deeper. So this won't let us get very accurate reads on this stat. So we can move it down by around 5%. This leaves us with an OS range of 20% of hands. A range like this makes decent sense:
TT-22,A9s-A2s,A2o+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,76s,65s,54s
This range has a bit lowered weight on AT+ and KT+ to allow for a minr range. It also includes a few bluffs. The calling range computed with icmizer vs this is:
(16.4%) 22+,A6s+,A7o+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs
So we can hero fold.
Even vs a more bluff heavy range:
TT-22,A2s+,A9o-A2o,K8o,K7o,T8o+,98o,76s,65s,54s
the calling range is
(29.6%) 33+,A2s+,A5o+,K8s+,K9o+,Q8s+,QTo+,J8s+,J9o+,T8s+,T9o
So we can still hero fold but it's closer.
I think given the reads you have folding is fine here. But it's definitely somewhat close, and if you think the population at 1.5s tends to open shove some crazy stuff or very often because of the micro stakes calling would be 100% fine despite the reads we have since we use reads to move us away from population tendencies with this kind of sample size.
Hope this helps ;) GL
Thank you so much :)