stats oop of villain:
call open: 67%
fold to cbet 25%
Villain made some lose calls at flop, so my bet there is standart, maybe a little bit bigger (?)
Turn gets complicated but I think I have to protect here.
I am gradefull for any responses.
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| BB | Player1 | 590 | |
| BTN | Hero | 2410 |
Effective Stacks: 15bb
Blinds 20/40
Pre-Flop (60, 2 players)
Hero is BTN
Hero raises to 80, Player1 calls 40
Flop (160, 2 players)
Player1 checks, Hero bets 80, Player1 calls 80
Turn (320, 2 players)
Player1 checks, Hero bets 200, Player1 goes all-in 430, Hero calls 230
River (1180, 2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: 1180
Player1 shows
Hero shows
Player1 wins 1180 ( won +590 )
Hero lost -590
I can imagine this was pretty annoying to see!
Flat AQo @ 15BB, c/c top pair and c/r jam over turn 2barrel.
Classic fish value line lol.
Executive Summary:
I think the best play here is to check back turn and bluff catch the river.
Details:
As played.
We (normally) don't put any Ax in his OOP flatting range @ 15BB.
So we cbet hoping to get action primarily from FDs.
His c/c range here will be 9x, 5x, FDs & sometimes slow played flushes or some other strange hands that you don't expect to see (like AQ lol).
Note that there will be on average more 9x than 5x in his range but you have a blocker to the 9 somewhat cancelling that out.
Note also that your 8 kicker is about the mid range and that on average an OOP flatting range will tend to have you outkicked here because people tend to play high card hands.
The turn pairs the bottom pair and the FD misses. He checks to you again.
You decide to bet again to get value from FDs.
I wouldn't bother. I think there is more value in checking back here and bluff catching on the river.
You're donating value to 9x, 5x and slow plays for the benefit of protecting against an unlikely to hit better one card FDs or overcards to the 9.
But if he has a single pair hand and improves to 2 pair on the river he probably won't be playing it very fast on this board.
You have an 8 hi FD in your hand anyway so don't mind if the FD hits with so little money left behind.
And if it misses he will have more hands in his range which he feels like he can bluff after you show weakness on the turn.
Which your hand is more effective at than to trying to get 2 streets of value here imo.
When he jams over the turn its pretty gross.
But we are pretty much running with the assumption that he doesn't have Ax in his range and that if he did he would have tried to get it in on the flop to prevent a 4th heart killing his action and / or his relative hand strength.
Additionally if he c/c a FD or 9x, it would be illogical for him to then start raising the turn => he's not going to play these hands passively and then start c/r the turn.
His turn c/r narrows his range to slow plays => flopped flushes and 5x.
I will shout drinks all night for the opponent who shows me a bluff when he takes the line c/c flop c/r jam turn on this board.
His range is so imbalanced in this spot.
Best case scenario he has just jammed a weaker flush and your 8h could be good if you rebink the river.
But I don't like your chances vs an OOP flatting range in a single raised pot here.
As played you have to fold. You're almost certainly behind and could be drawing dead.
I think the best play in this hand is to check back turn and bluff catch the river.
Then smash your mouse and go into Phill Hellmuth rant mode when he shows you AQ :(
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sFJ-de4E3Y
It seems to have worked. Before you call villain a fish, you might wanna ask hero why he would open-raise 98o at 15bb ES, versus an opponent who calls open 67% and only folds to cbet 25% of the time. IMO fish here is clearly hero.
Hi.
"It seems to have worked. Before you call villain a fish, you might wanna ask hero why he would open-raise 98o at 15bb ES, versus an opponent who calls open 67% and only folds to cbet 25% of the time. IMO fish here is clearly hero."
This is where HUD stats fall down in my opinion. An opponent doesn't necessarily play the same at 15bbs as he does at 75bbs. So I think it is presumptuous to assume this is bad play. It all depends on how the opponent is playing now.
And if you don't know how the opponent plays, the best play is to open raise a trash-drawing hand at 15bb ES, because...?
Hi.
cdon3822 I find your detailed reply very helpful and totally agree with you, bet flop und check turn back is the better line.
I also want to thank barrin, I can understand your point and agree, that open raising 98o is non-essential when villain calls 67% and folds to cbet only 25% at 15bb.
But is that really such a big mistake ?
Maybe I have to work on my preflop game.
Thank you both for the quick responses.
Maybe, if you can squeeze him like an orange if you hit big and he does not...but if you overplay those bad (drawing) hands, like you did, you will lose lots of money, like you did.
Hi.
against an opponent with such stats i think it´s not such a bad idea to have quite a limping range and i certainly would include 98o in my limping range.
cheers
s.
(y)
+1
Agree, limping better than raising pre vs this guy.