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sbarber's picture
$20 TPWK on dry board

Villain is 2% winner, stakes are $20 turbo on ipoker.  It's early, but the guy has been tight, folding to all PF raises, and folding some of his buttons too.  We've actually only seen one flop, where we limped in and he checked down missed 43s, which was last hand, so I don't know if him not folding that hand is a sign he's getting sick of being dealt rubbish.

Hero 1610 chips
Villain 1360 chips
Blinds 10/20

Hero dealt Kd8h

Hero bets 60
Villain calls 40

I find it really difficult to range people at this point.  If he hasn't called a PFR yet, he's either really tight or has been dealt complete garbage so far, but overall I expect him to have some aces or kings, PP's, SC's and maybe QT/JT type hands.

Flop Kh 7s 2s   Pot 120

OK, so here is a dry board, with the exception of a flush draw.  No straight draw, no decent 2nd pair, and most of his PP's above the 7 would have 3 bet PF.  Because I cbet 98s or A5o here, I think I have to cbet with K8o, but I'm hating life if I get raised here, and really don't know if I should continue?  Against many players yes, against this tight unknown I'm not so sure.

Villain checks
Hero bets 80
Villain calls

I think that narrows his range down a lot.  A king, which I almost have to think is better than mine given he has folded PF so much, a PP he doesn't want to fold yet like 99/88, 2nd pair A7 or 87 or the flush draw, like JTss.  He'd also possibly slowplay a set/two pair or KTss on this dry board.

Turn Kh 7s 2s 5c   Pot 280

Villain checks

Here is where I get lost.  Given how tight he's been OOP, if I raise here, I'm getting the 2nd pair, and missed PP's to fold, and better kings to call.  I don't think he folds 99 if he's played it this way, and he could have a flush draw, but given how tight he's been, I struggle to throw out a value bet here, even though I have top pair in heads up.  I guess the other thing is my hand is unlikely to get sucked out on if I'm ahead, but I really do feel I'm losing value by not betting.  Is this a big mistake or OK?

Hero checks

River Kh 7s 2s 5c 9h   Pot 280

Villain bets 140
Hero calls 140

OK, firstly, I'm not raising this bet, it looks like a value bet, and I'm not beating many value bets really.  I'm really not getting called by a rivered 9 or weaker king, and I'm not getting worse than K8 to fold.  It could be a better king, rivered or turned two pair, but it'll be a missed flush sometimes, a rivered 9 sometimes, doubt it's A7, but you never know at these stakes.  I think it's a pretty easy call given how I played it, but unsure whether I played it well anyway.

So I really want to maximise value from my made hands, and looking at this hand history, it feels like I minimised value by not betting the turn, regardless of results.  Any thoughts?

TrippyTrippy's picture
you definatly should bet the

you definatly should bet the turn here, you get value here out of most flushdraws and 7x and 88-QQ although most JJ and QQ prob 3bet pre-flop. Another reason for betting the turn is that he probably doesnt lead the river and you can check back most bad rivers. So just bet around 200 and given the way how tight he has been fold to any raise. If he flatcalls the turn you can make a small valuebet on a blank river.
The river as played is fine.

cymonguk's picture
depends

I would always fire again.
I also think the Ace could have floated you here, if he has had bad hands he will probably want to see you out. Especially with you throwing out a standard bet. Many players if holding an A8+ will call a cbet here. also he could have middle pair and ace and call.
It is the same place i have to close my eyes and fire though