No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter BBHero1784 BTNPlayer81216 Effective Stacks: 30bb Blinds 20/40 Pre-Flop (60, 2 players)Hero is BB Player8 goes all-in 1216, Hero calls 1176 Flop (2432, 2 players, 1 all-in) Turn (2432, 2 players, 1 all-in) River (2432, 2 players, 1 all-in) Villain is moderately winning reg with silverstar at $2 level. Do you think it's a leak calling a flip 30bb deep with only 14bb left behind if i lose? Based on how the villain plays pretty tag I think he has a small pocket pair here most of the time(maybe a suited connector?). What would you say a winning micro player shoves with this deep?
You'd need a read that your opponent is a huge donk to call a shove with this hand at this point. Think about what range he'd be shoving here, he's not looking for fold equity here, he's hoping you'll come along with a top hand, one that you're going to be clearly behind. If this is the first time he's doing this, you need to fold in the blink of an eye, if he's shoving a fair bit then you can adjust and call down lighter, it's all about putting him on a range based upon frequency, as the blinds get bigger and it makes more sense to shove lighter then this can be a call, it makes no sense to shove anything right now unless he thinks you'll call light, like you did.
I dunno. This is our first game, and the guy has been playing good tagg poker up until now. I just can't see him playing a strong hand this way. At the same time I know he can't have air. Shoving with a small pocket pair doesn't make much sense here either this deep, but it makes more sense than AT+, 99+. He's been trying to milk value the entire match so far, and seems to prefer playign postflop. I mean, I haven't made any lite calldowns or even called a 3bet at this point. Plus, I have a taggy image at this point as well. I'm not defending my play, which still may be wrong, but I don't think his shove here represents strength.
Unless they are tilting or they have done this before, I think A9s is a bit too weak in this spot.You do see a lot of small PPs, but plenty of guys do this with AJ-AK to make it a losing expectation call (without the reads).On the other hand, there's guys that open shove here and there, and guys that tilt, and vs those players I think it's absolutely a correct call.I would also stay away from calling this "take a flip." I think it is very rarely actually a flip vs an opponent, they are either ahead or behind enough to make it a clear call or fold in a majority of situations.Remember, tight players play less hands. Playing less hands means they are often less comfortable, particularly in spots that vary greatly from opponent to opponent (such as mid to end game stack sizes). Therefore, rather than open raise, they often just make an overreaction play in order to oversimplify their decision making process. In some areas, like open shoving 22 at 13bb, this can make good sense and is probably the best play. But taken to the extreme, such as open shoving AJ at 30bb, this is not a great idea for them, for even though they probably will profit between hand strength and fold equity vs most players, they aren't getting anywhere near their maximum profit potential if they had taken a different line (such as a preflop minraise or preflop 2.5x raise size). So from a TAG player, on his first open shove, I think you see a lot more AJ-AK here than you think.
Thanks for the detailed reply. Gives me a lot to think about.
Yeah most of the time you're up against it, if he's tight then all the more reason to be careful, AK-AT, AA-TT you're in trouble, that's going to be most if not all his range here. The only hands you flip with are going to be pocket pairs 8 or less, or bluffs, it makes no sense for him to be bluffing here no matter how bad he is. So this is really would be donking off your stack most of the time, and most of the time is enough reason to fold. In order to call here I'd want to see him doing this fairly frequently, enough that your hand is going to be ahead of his range, it's unusual but some players are push monkeys in the earlier rounds but even against them you need to be careful, this being the first time he's done this, it looks more like he's trying to suck you in with AA, KK, AK maybe, loving to get called here.