No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$0.95 + $0.05 Heads Up Sit & Go Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter BBHero500 SBVillain500 Effective Stacks: 25bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is BB Villain raises to 40, Hero calls 20 Flop (80, 2 players) Hero bets 80, Villain raises to 160, Hero goes all-in 460, Villain goes all-in 300 Turn (1000, 2 players, 2 all-in) River (1000, 2 players, 2 all-in) Final Pot: 1000 Hero shows a straight, Seven high Villain shows a pair of Kings Hero wins 1000 ( won +500 ) Villain lost -500I think there are 21 outs here.Cards that help 3,4,6,2,AIf we get 6,8 we get a split pot because of a straight on the board.3*3,6*4,4*2,2*4,A*4 =17 outs8*4=4 + 17=21 outs52 cards - 3 flop - 2 hand = 47 cards to come.21 cards will help, so 47 - 21 =26 cards won't help.26/21 = 1.23 so 1.23 to 1 is the probability that some sort of straight will occur.Is this correct?
I'm not sure whether you entered the hand here correctly or not, but with the cards as they are above, you have way less than 21 outs. When you get it in on the flop, the only cards that automatically complete your straight or 2 pair are 3, 4, and 6. Cards that give you a chance for a runner-straight don't count as "outs" in the same way that these cards do. When you look at those, you almost must consider that if your opponent has a backdoor draw as well as redraws - if any diamond hits the turn, your opponent will pick up a runner flush draw and you'll have to hit an out that isn't a diamond. All in all, you're about 20% to win this hand if you plug it into the odds calculator.
Yes, only count direct outs. Ax does not really help your hand much (it gives you 4 more additional outs if it comes on the turn, which is 8% more equity I believe, actually less because Ad closes one of those outs). If there were no flush draw considerations an ace coming on the turn adds 4 outs for your hand which is basically an 8% chance of happening (after the ace falls, which was 8% likely to happen in the first place, so take 8% of 8%, which is under 1% and you can see how little runner runners can be considered as solid equity).So here only your four outs to a straight and 5 outs to two pair or three of a kind would count, giving you about nine total outs which translates into about a 36% chance that you make that hand.Your actual equity in this hand is of course lower, since your opponent has a chance of improving their hand. Your equity on the flop is about 31% here.