Hey guys, I just registered yesterday.
I'm trying to build a HUSNG roll starting at the 2.15$ regular-speed games on FTP.
Here's a hand from my first game today: http://www.pokerhand.org/?5184426
My opponent had been playing very nitty. I've never played him. It took him 7 hands to VP$IP (and he did it with a 3x raise). The second time he played, it was hand #11, which is the one above.
There are a few things I'm not sure about this hand. The first one is how much to bet on the turn. I bet 350 into 400 because of how drawy the board is but that might be a little too much? Would 300-320 be better?
Secondly, what do I make of his turn call? At this point I doubt he has a hand like AJ. To be honest, I thought the river 7 helped me because KJ is never folding.
Well, I've very much puzzled about this one (as I've been so much about many hands since I started HUSNGs!) Thanks a bunch for your time.
I wouldn't bet that much on that turn since I absolutely don't want to commit myself to the pot with it - I bet a lot smaller, about 250-280, and fold even to a minraise.
QT got there and he can also have a lot of two pair hands or already have the straight on the flop, so we're beat if we get raised there by a passive player.
However, I still want to get some value from a Jack or some draw, so I do bet here again.
River, I'd definitely lean towards check/folding if the 9 paired - especially after betting smaller at the turn - but the 7 is just such a beautiful card for us. Since he's tight, it's just so very unlikely that he called us twice with just bottom pair, so I wouldn't ever put him on trips here. His line also doesn't make much sense with a straight with the flush-draw out there - and T8 must absolutely raise the turn for protection as it could easily get counterfated on the river.
So I think his most likely holding here is two pair - and we now beat all his two pairs, so I'd just shove this for value.
Btw. you shouldn't post results.
Thanks for the reply jack. Point taken about not posting the results.
My biggest issue was with how much to bet the turn. After his call and with the seemingly good river card, I thought there was no escape with the over pair.
I like your line for the most part. Regarding the turn bet, I'd tend to bet a little bit smaller to about 300ish (But I don't think that your bet is necessarily bad given the information you provided.) You say that he's been pretty nitty, so I'd be pretty wary if he played back on the flop or turn and would be almost always be folding facing any resistance on this board. Unfortunately, being out of position, it's certainly tougher to define his hand here than it would be in position. As played though, I like your play because he could be on flush, straight, or combo draws, as a nitty player on average is less likely to be raising with these types of hands. The river is just a great card for you as, like jackoneill pointed out, would put you ahead of most two pairs he could be playing cautiously. All in all, I don't think there's anything wrong with the line you took.
I hope this helps, and good luck building your roll :)