I had played this opponent 4 times prior to this match. I don't think he was terrible (or he was running very well). He had 3 bet (mostly min 3 bets) quite wide (around 25%), but I had also seen him flat AT off suit. He was check raising about 25% of the time he flatted my button raise. I had seen him check call my double barrel with Q7 on Q high dry flop. In position he was also only firing about 40% C bets. He seemed to only fire with good equity / value. I could be wrong there though. Prior to this hand, I had just won 4 hands in a row. Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.comBB: 1,418.00Hero (SB): 1,582.00Hero posts SB 15.00, BB posts BB 30.00Pre Flop: (45.00) Hero has Kh 2cHero raises to 60.00, BB raises to 90.00, Hero calls 30.00Flop: (180.00, 2 players) 2s 5h 4dBB checks, Hero bets 90.00, BB raises to 205.00, Hero calls 115.00Turn: (590.00, 2 players) 2hBB checks, Hero bets 295.00 Would you check back the flop?If not, how much would you bet?Once raised, would you call?What would you do on the turn? I think I played this hand badly. Any thoughts?
Alot depends on your reads. Has he been 3betting this small often? Is this the first time you've seen him do this? Have you seen him c/r bluffing? What type of range do you put him on? How does he play his draws OOP? If this is the first time he's done this to your minraise I'd put him on a strong pocket pair or strong Ax. But I think the majority of the time I'd say he was c/r with an overpair to the board (If he hasn't been playing this aggressively throughout) given the small 3bet. I wouldn't call this c/r with such little chance of improving on the turn. Your reads will determine how much of this is weighted towards draws and air or an overpair to the board. You have 5 outs which is about 20% after the flop to hit a 2 or a K assuming he doesn't have AA. He's giving you 3.5:1 on your money with the check raise which is 35%. Easy fold.
Taking a shot at this... dont take my word for the analysis, but this is just my 2-cents onthe hand. so this analysis is biased towards many of my assumptions....You both are fairly deepstacked 47BB effective stacks. from ur observation, u coined the fact that villain understands the concept of equity, so i would assume villain's 3-betting range is mostly merged towards broadways, and SC, since they play well postflop vs ur button raising range... villain is probably opting to 3-bet hands with good postflop equity while flatting hands like AX,small pocket pairs, since hands like 66 play bad postflop OOPi assigned villains probable hand rangeTT+,AJs+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T7s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,53s+,43s,AJo+,KTo+,Q9o+,J9o+second observation. we can see that villain doesnt check raise thin for value, since he didnt check raise 7Q with TP bad kicker...so id assume his checkraising range to be more polarized toward nuts or air/draws, while check calling down with TPWK, and second pair hands Board：254 rainbowits hard for villains hand range to hit on the low flop, since his hand range is more weighted towards the top 25% hand rangewe could actually see that his checkraise on this flop isnt repping much. the only hands that he's repping is sets, or overpairs for the nutted hand range, while the rest are air hand range..i excluded the fact that he's 3-betting hands like 24,25,45=since he's more weighted towards value 3-bet, as opposed to these junk hands, since he doesnt acheive anything with his min 3-bet, if in fact he was 3-betting a hand like (24)Total 2-card hand combinations=1326im calculating this through combinatorics.hand range beating u: 1) 22,44,55 ,TT+= 1 combo of 22+2combo 44+2 combo 55+ 30 combos TT+=35 combos of nutted hand rangefrom the given stats his 3-betting range is 25% of total hand range=1326*(.25)=331.5 possible hand combinationsout of 331 combos, only 35 combos are beating u35/331=10% ur behind villains perceived hand rangeapprx 90% ur ahead of villains hand range equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 63.431% 61.94% 01.49% 1401871 33656.50 { K2o }Hand 1: 36.569% 35.08% 01.49% 793956 33656.50 { TT+, AJs+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, AJo+, KTo+, Q9o+, J9o+ }This is my generalizationFlop play: I would check here for pot control... reasoning: my hand has showdown equity vs villains hand range.. since he's CR with such high frequency, i would be put in a hard situation on the next 2-street if in fact villain CR here on flop and double barreled.im basically in a way ahead way behind scenario, losing to overpairs, while beating villains Overcard+SC hand range, while KX overcard has actually reverse implied odds for villains hand range...the only cards we have to worry are: J,Q,T,9=equates to 16 bad cardwe factor out A-high, since villain is more prone to flatting them OOP16/47=34% 1/3 times we will be facing a decision when facing a card that strengthens villains perceived hand range...i would check for pot control, and bet turn on : K,2,4,5 boardsfor value+equity protection against villains overcard hand range...1) the way u played the hand, i wouldve folded flop........Turn play: after hitting a set, i would check for deception.. only bad card for u on river is 4,5,3,A... while u can value bet villain on any other river
Happy,I like a check back the flop. I turn our hand into a bluff catcher as I bet this villain will fire the majority of his range on the turn where u can usually flat a reasonable bet and re-eval river in position.Look at it from Villains perspective, that flop doesn't hit your precieved pf 3-bet calling range in any shape or form, I am not saying he will always c/r atc on this flop but he probably feels he can do it really really really wide.By checking back the flop, you can probably induce some bluffs on turn and probably maximize your value here where your stack sizes are still really deep and save getting yourself into a pretty tricky spot. just my opinion, gl !