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Slatey's picture
Adjusting to Variance

Does anyone here adjust/move down a level after they have been running extremely hot and sense the tides are shifting? ...or is it wrong to try to guesstimate when?

RyPac13's picture
I think it's usually better

I think it's usually better to move up when winning, as you are more confident in your decision making.This is assuming you're a good player, I would guess a losing player should move down no matter if they are winning or losing.When you're losing, especially over long periods, it can take a toll mentally and start to hurt your play.  Then your edge becomes smaller or non existent and that's when I think moving down is most appropriate.Sendsing tides shifting is a gambler's fallacy, I believe, as other than your mentality and confidence in decision making, no other variance should be predictable nor based on any previous results.  Meaning your next 100 games could be your best or your worst, feelings aside.