basic hand reasoning | Heads Up Poker And Spin and Go Videos

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Sat, 08/17/2013 - 20:02

Zyntherius

basic hand reasoning

Rather than getting into advanced mathematical situations I want to make sure that my fundamentals are okay.

Hope to hear some reflections on a situation like this

Let's say we are playing shortstacked heads up (25bb effective stacks) and we value minraise with KTo in position

Flop comes A66 with 2 spades and we don't have a spade

While it is clear that we have good showdown value here and our hand is best very often (he reraises Ax and PPs almost always pre), can anyone give as many arguments as possible why cbetting is still standard? Are there any other arguments than that you give away equity by checking back? I cbet this all day, not even sure if that is for value cause I don't expect worse to call. I just think it is hard for villains to rep much on such boards, and I don't like facing a turn and river barrel if I don't cbet a hand with showdown value which is likely also the best hand.

I guess I just want to stay away from close decisions if people start bluffing vs my bluffcatchers if I don't cbet them. Not sure if that is bad or exploitable

Mon, 08/19/2013 - 05:04

cdon3822

Why this is standard cbet

Why is cbetting here is standard?

Board is paired and ace-high
=> Your range hits this more than his because:
===>> Ax is in your range but not in villain's (we are assuming villain will 3b Ax preflop readless)
===>> there isn't much 6x in his OOP flatting range (other than maybe some 76s, 65s, K6, Q6) but there is 6x in your (presumably) wide IP opening range
===>> and you still have other value hands which he cannot represent after flatting OOP (eg. KK - 77)
You have the preflop betting initiative, which you give up by checking back
You have position and have been checked to in a spot where neither player has a hand most of the time => a large component of the value of position (and why you play wider ranges profitably IP) is being able to take down these pots.
You may have the best hand but you make your decision on the turn and river difficult by not cbetting => he can lead with virtually his entire range when you check back and your turn decision will be difficult on any non-K card (even then you're not loving life if he continues to barrel his stack off repping/with 6x)
Your hand has show down value, but it is vulnerable to being outdrawn (all you have is K high)
=> Say you have 60% equity with your show down value vs his range when checked to on the flop (your hand is easily outdraw)
=> Your pot equity is worth 0.6 * 4 = 2.4 BB
=> When you cbet, if villain folds more than 60% of time (likely in this spot) your fold equity alone is worth more than your pot equity.
=> You profit instantly from fold equity whereas your pot equity risks being devalued over 2 more streets.
On exploitability: if you are betting your Ax, 6x & KK-77 in this spot, what are you betting as bluffs to balance your range?
=> FDs?
=> Total air?
=> You have quite a large value range, so can naturally bluff a lot here and still remain balanced.
==>> But why even care about balance in this spot? If villain c/r you NAI as a bluff to exploit a bluff heavy range in this spot, you're getting a great price to float him IP and make even more expectation the times he gives up and checks to you and you float-rebluff-jam on the turn or river. If you give him credit for thinking enough to c/r bluff in a spot where he identifies that both players likely do not have anything, surely you give him enough credit to not 3 barrel bluff OOP with total air where he is subsequently likely to be value-owning himself when you bet-call a flop c/r? That is, his turn and river continuation bets will likely be imbalanced value ranges which you can easily fold against. But you can jam it in profitably when checked to :)

High variance, fancy play aside, readless cbetting this flop and folding to any c/r is still more +EV than checking back and it definitely makes your turn and river decisions easier (+ mental EV).
Although most bet decisions are for value or as a bluff, when you cbet in this spot you are taking a line which is on the value side of betting to simply take down the dead money in the pot; leveraging the value of position and aggression in heads up texas holdem.
Simply put: your fold equity in this spot is worth more than your risk adjusted pot equity, so you're giving up expectation by not cbetting.
Hence why cbetting in this spot is standard.

Sun, 08/25/2013 - 14:45

(Reply to #2) #3

Zyntherius

Thanks, that is very

Thanks, that is very comprehensive
Quote:
" Simply put: your fold equity in this spot is worth more than your risk adjusted pot equity, so you're giving up expectation by not cbetting "
I do not question that this is true, but I wonder if it is close or significantly better to take the pot equity.
Not cbetting and correcly bluffcatching on the river with K high would lead to winning a bigger pot. But I think that when you face a riverbet there's a decent % of his range that bets for value vs K high because it has drawn out. Also not c-betting K high is something I would do in the assumption that players will always turn hands with no showdown value into a bluff (7 high etc) and I don't think that is an assumption I should be making. Villains would probably have to always be bluffing with 7 high on the river to make up for this equity, and in reality I think a lot of players just give up.
Last but not least I do think there is additional equity to pick up by cbetting K high and getting called for value by Q high.
The question arose from the general scenario where I c-bet a hand that has decent showdown value and is likely the best hand, but can not stand a check raise.
On A66 rainbow villains can not check raise and barrel profitably because once I call my range is capped at Ax or better. But there are some other flops where there are barreling opportunities. Basically I want to learn how to counter those

Mon, 08/26/2013 - 12:17

(Reply to #3) #4

cdon3822

You can calculate an indifference point

Let's model it
(Note I will use propokertools odds oracle for equity calcs)

Give opponent flatting range @ 25BB of:
[KxQx-Kx2x,KxQy-Kx5y,QxJx-Qx2x,QxTy-Qx6y,JxTx-Jx4x,JxTy-Jx7y,Tx9x-Tx6x,Tx9y-Tx7y,9x8x-9x6x,9x8y,9x7y,8x7x,8x6x,8x7y,7x6x,7x5x,6x5x,6x4x,5x4x,4x3x]
=> 448 combos representing 36.9% of hands

Preflop our range of [KxQy] has 63% equity vs this flatting range.

The flop comes A66 two tone.
AND hero does not have a flush.

If we assume villain is checking their entire range to us (value & bluffs) we have 61% equity here.
AND villain's range is comprised of:
84.0% nothing
8.4% flush draws
7.6% trips

If we assume villain will bluff 10% of the time, we can assume we get (84.0 - 10.0) = 74% folds when we cbet
In a single raised pot, P = 4.0 BB & we cbet an assumed 0.5P = 2.0 BB
If we have an assumed 30% equity (can be calculated more accurately if we know villains exact range) when villain calls then:
EV(cbet) = (0.74 * 4.0 - 2.0) + 0.26 * 0.3 * (4.0 + 2.0 + 2.0) = (0.96 + 0.64) = 1.6 BB
^^ Note we are also assuming villain is calling not raising to keep number of assumptions managable on forum response

BUT is checking back and bluff catching better?

How much more do we win by bluff catching (if any)?
If we check back, the pot will remain 4.0 BB big blinds on the turn.
If we assume villain leads out both streets for 0.5P and we check-call we can calculate the marginal expectation of bluff catching vs cbetting.
Pturn = 4.0 +2.0 + 2.0 = 8.0 BB
Priver = 8.0 + 4.0 + 4.0 = 16.0 BB

We have the best hand 61% of the time by the river.
EV(bluff catching) = 16.0 * 0.61 - (2.0 + 4.0) = 3.76

Marginal expectation = EV(bluff catching) - EV(cbet) = 3.76 - 1.6 = 2.16 BB

So there may be an argument for bluff catching 2 streets.
We have made a lot of assumptions here though.
The marginal expectation is highly sensitive to what villain is leading 2 streets with.
Obviously if villain leads a value heavy range, we won't be good the 61% of the time.
Against super aggressive villains that take a flop check back as an invitation to barrel their stack off, turning your K high into a bluff catcher may be the best play.
But when you call the turn, how many villains are really going to bet into you again on the river unimproved?
AND are you prepared to call down on any 2 board run outs here?

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