...just called a preflop min raise at 20/40 with 95o and a stack of 360 and then thought it clever to XR all in when the board was Jh 9h xh without a heart. He was called by the jack and lost.
How is it good play to call with 95o at this critical point in the game I ask myself. You don't see this type of -ve ev play at the micros so how come we see it at the top?
The play is not neccessarily -EV.
If you can outplay your opponent post flop it doesn't really matter what your cards are.
Consider the math:
S = 9.0 BB
PREFLOP
On BB with 95o facing min raise.
SB = 0.5 BB
BB = 1.0 BB
P0 = 1.5 BB
Villain min raises 1.5 BB
P1 = (1.5 + 1.5) = 3.0 BB
It costs us 1.0 BB to call for our equity share of (3.0 + 1.0) = 4.0 BB
We only need 1.0 / 4.0 = 25% equity to call here.
If villain is opening say 80% of buttons, how does 95o fare?
95o vs 80% = 39%
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=he&h1=9x5y&h2=80%25&s=generic
The fair value of our equity in the pot = 0.39 * 3.0 = 1.17 BB
and we are offered to buy it (cost of our call) for 1.0 BB
We actually have enough equity to call if villain is opening 80% of buttons.
Most players won't because:
- They don't think they can realise their equity post flop OOP with such a weak holding that plays poorly postflop
- They are in preflop jam or fold mode @ 9.0BB
FLOP
We check, villain cbets 0.5P = 2.0 BB
P2 = (4.0 + 2.0) = 6.0 BB
We hit the flop so our equity has likely improved.
On the flop we have 70% equity vs villain's preflop opening range and will have 54% equity by the river.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jh+9h+4h&g=he&h1=9s5c&h2=80%25&s=generic
The best play depends on how often villain cbets on this flop?
If we assume he is cbetting 100% of his range here, what is our EV of jamming?
To calculate our EV of jamming we need to decide what he will call our c/r jam with and what he will fold?
On the flop (given assumed 80% open and 100% cbet) villains range is:
HANDS:
58.5% high card
33.8% one pair
2.0% two pair
.8% three of a kind
0% straight
4.92% flush
DRAWS
32.5% FD
3.6% OESD
8.7% gutshots
COMBOS
9.6% pair + FD
If villain will call a jam here with his pair + FD, and 2 pair or better.
He calls (9.6 + 2.0 + 0.8 + 4.9) = 17.3%
Add another arbitary 10% for the times he calls with Ah or Kh + some margin of safety.
Villain folds 100 - (17.3 + 10.0) = 72.7%
And assume we have zero equity when he calls (not strictly true).\
The EV of c/r jamming:
EV(c/r jam) = f * P - (1 - f) * (S - C); where C = sunk cost = (1.0 + 1.0) = 2.0 BB
= 0.73 * 6.0 - 0.27 * (9.0 - 2.0)
= 4.38 - 1.89
= 2.49 BB
If the above assumptions are correct (very debatable @ 9.0 BB effective stacks) then the play is +2.49 BB EV.
You would to have a pretty strong conviction that the assmptions are correct before you make a play like this though...
I'm snap folding to a min raise with 95o @ 9.0BB because the players I play against are only min raising the top of their range here and I prefer to jam or fold OOP this shallow.
Maybe high stakes players (or this specific villain) still open and cbets wide enough this shallow to make this a profitable play?
Its funny how high stakes reg battles hand histories at times look so similar to microstakes LAG fish battles...
I completely agree. The numbers stand up at 20+ Bb when it is also conceivable to face a 100% cbet frequency. But at 9bb?
I know some of the coaches here (I'm thinking of coffeeyay) say to open min raise wide shallow but in reality it doesn't happen as it is just too exploitable and so most half decent hands get open shoved and, like you say, top hands either also get semi bluff shoved or try and induce by min raising.
If you did think your opponent was min raise opening 70% at 9bb then he woud expect any decent hand to 3bet shove. So by calling his min raise you are, imo, basically spending more than 10% of your stack to see a flop oop with a capped range.
It just can't be a good idea. Furthermore, if the plan is to XR him regardless of the flop because he Cbets wide, alot of the time he will be pot committed with the weakest of hands which are getting the odds to call your XR and improve.
If you watch Skaiwalkurrr he calls Xr shoves all the time with what he knows is the weaker hand. And alot of the time he comes out on top.