The binomial calculator is for figuring out the chances that a x % winrate player will win x games or more over x sample size.So if you feel you're a 55% winner, it can be useful to know the chances that you win 120 games or more over a 200 game sample (and this calculator can do this).It's especially fun for prop bets, you can take advantage of some major egos with a tool like this :)Let me know if you have any other questions or suggestions about it.
The Binomial Distribution is one of the discrete probability distribution. It is used when there are exactly two mutually exclusive outcomes of a trial. These outcomes are appropriately labeled Success and Failure. The Binomial Distribution is used to obtain the probability of observing r successes in n trials, with the probability of success on a single trial denoted by p.P.S. You know that google can give you instant answers to simple questions like that one? :)
Someone please explain me how to use this thing. I must be doing something wrong. According to this calculator a breakeven hyperturbo player (0.511 winrate) can win just 130 out of 300 games only 0.4% of time. Or am I missing something? I'm having this losing stretch right now and I don't know if I should start to worry (I was ~4% in EV winner at these stakes over previous 4k games).
Hi Nyul86, Using the inputs you have suggested 0.5110 winrate 300 number of games130 Expected winning GamesI get........Percentage chance of winning exact no. games 0.12Percentage chance of winning less or exact no. games 0.42Percentage chance of winning more games 99.58So you have 99.58% of winning more than 130 games.There is a new version of this program i wrote which is a bit more intuitive.This one can be confusing. Waiting for Ryan to put it up.Regards,222
The binomial calculator is for figuring out the chances that a x % winrate player will win x games or more over x sample size.So if you feel you're a 55% winner, it can be useful to know the chances that you win 120 games or more over a 200 game sample (and this calculator can do this).It's especially fun for prop bets, you can take advantage of some major egos with a tool like this :)Let me know if you have any other questions or suggestions about it.
The Binomial Distribution is one of the discrete probability distribution. It is used when there are exactly two mutually exclusive outcomes of a trial. These outcomes are appropriately labeled Success and Failure. The Binomial Distribution is used to obtain the probability of observing r successes in n trials, with the probability of success on a single trial denoted by p.P.S. You know that google can give you instant answers to simple questions like that one? :)
Someone please explain me how to use this thing. I must be doing something wrong. According to this calculator a breakeven hyperturbo player (0.511 winrate) can win just 130 out of 300 games only 0.4% of time. Or am I missing something? I'm having this losing stretch right now and I don't know if I should start to worry (I was ~4% in EV winner at these stakes over previous 4k games).
Hi Nyul86, Using the inputs you have suggested 0.5110 winrate 300 number of games130 Expected winning GamesI get........Percentage chance of winning exact no. games 0.12Percentage chance of winning less or exact no. games 0.42Percentage chance of winning more games 99.58So you have 99.58% of winning more than 130 games.There is a new version of this program i wrote which is a bit more intuitive.This one can be confusing. Waiting for Ryan to put it up.Regards,222
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thanks