Readless first hand of hyper turbo @ 25BB in position.
Min raise Q3s.
Villain flats and flop comes 876 r
cbet or check back readless?
(I thought it was a really close decision but figured when in doubt the more aggressive option is usually better)
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$6.85+$0.15
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| SB | Hero | 500 | |
| BB | jack kincaid | 500 |
Effective Stacks: 25bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is SB
Hero raises to 40, jack kincaid calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
jack kincaid checks, Hero bets 40, jack kincaid calls 40
Turn (160, 2 players)
jack kincaid checks, Hero checks
River (160, 2 players)
jack kincaid bets 102, Hero folds
Final Pot: 160
jack kincaid wins 262 ( won +80 )
Hero lost -80
This is close but without going into too much reasoning I think checking back is fine vs regs or aggressive players and checking or betting small vs tight players is better
Maybe a reasonable preflop flat calling range for an average opponent is 35-40% while 3betting 10-15%.
If you look at the range that might fold to your c-bet, you will realize that there are very few hands a good player will fold here. Against a very tight person, a c-bet is probably okay. Against every other person it's not a very good decision if you're planning to give up if there's no Q on later streets.
So, readless I think both decisions are neither very bad nor very profitable.
Maybe a reasonable preflop flat calling range for an average opponent is 35-40% while 3betting 10-15%.
If you look at the range that might fold to your c-bet, you will realize that there are very few hands a good player will fold here. Against a very tight person, a c-bet is probably okay. Against every other person it's not a very good decision if you're planning to give up if there's no Q on later streets.
So, readless I think both decisions are neither very bad nor very profitable.
I had a bit closer look at this decision.
If we give villain an OOP calling range @ 25BB of:
[A7-A2,KQ-K4,QJ-Q6,JT-J6,T9-T7,98-97,87-86,76-75,65,Kx3x-Kx2x,Qx5x-Qx2x,Jx5x-Jx2x,Tx6x-Tx5x,9x6x-9x5x,8x5x,6x4x,5x4x] ~ 48.57% of hands before card removal effects
on a flop of [8d7c6h]
Qs3s has 18.7% equity and has very little chance of improving to the best hand against villain's continuing range.
That undercard 3 hurts us WAY more than I initially would have thought - happy times learned something :)
So our decision is basically a function of whether villain folds enough that we can profit from our fold equity.
With a half pot cbet, assuming we give up if called or raised, we can calculate the % folds we need to make this profitable.
EV(cbet) = f * P - cb
0 = f * 80 - 40
f = 40 / 80 = 50%
=> we need villain to fold > 50% of the time to show a profit from our fold equity here.
=> we can look at what his range is composed of on this flop to see if we think he will fold enough that we cbet profitably
Villain Hand Stats on Flop: Assumption about what villain will do with various holdings vs cbet shown by => [assumption]
17.0823% NOTHING | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0 => fold
16.0707% NOTHING | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4 => maybe fold, maybe not fold
16.7848% NOTHING | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8 => not fold
8.7030% THIRDPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0 => not fold
1.1420% THIRDPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4 => not fold
2.9273% THIRDPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8 => not fold
8.7238% SECONDPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0 => not fold
2.3737% SECONDPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4 => not fold
4.6743% SECONDPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8 => not fold
6.3965% TOPPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0 => not fold
2.3463% TOPPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4 => not fold
2.8870% TOPPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8 => not fold
1.7455% BOTTOMTWO | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0 => not fold
1.7537% TOPANDBOTTOM | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0 => not fold
1.7270% TOPTWO | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0 => not fold
4.6620% STRAIGHT | NO FLUSH DRAW | ALREADY HAVE/BEAT STRAIGHT => not fold
So if villain is continuing with everything that has at least a gushot here, he is only folding about 17% of the time.
What about if he is super nitty, even with his draws?
=> he has at least a pair here 50.06% of the time!
Upon review this isn't as close as I thought.
I don't think we can cbet profitably here for the pure fold equity and our pot equity is not worth much.
+ there aren't many cards we like for barrelling in position vs a c/c range
I guess we should check back and hope villain let's us realise whatever equity we do have with our Q high ...
I think you formula must be wrong. If you pay 40 to win 80 and he folds 50% then you show a big profit. Try using the same formula with a pot bet and you get that he needs to fold 100%? I think p needs to be 80+40 for it to be correct, then you get 33%. This makes it much closer.
I think on this flop you have two options depending on the opponent. Or check behind and if he does not lead on the turn come with a reasonable turnbet, or just c-bet here. You will get a lot of calls with your c-bet true, but also a lot of oppurtinities to get FE on the turn. Basically if you make a c-bet here and he calls and a good overcard comes I would for sure make a really nice turnbet and you would surprise how many hands would fold than. Anyway, the handle of this flop really depends on how you handle the turn. If you c-bet and give up after any call, you can better check behind and try to get more information. If you are also able to make a turnbet when a good overcards come I would go for c-bet and turnbet to maximize our FE.
LVT
Yep.
When we win, we also get our bet back so P = (40+80)
and we need 40 / 120 = 33% folds
Brainfart.
Thanks for pointing this out :)
Draw heavy boards are bad to cbet, because too many players simply wanna take a look. So, unless you have reads that your opponent is afraid of drawy boards or his range does not hit it at all and he tends to give up unless he hits very strong, you wanna take a look too. You still could barrel on a K or A
Hi.
I think the auto-profit calc is on the unprofitable side of breakeven without further reads about how villain will play their:
- gutshots
- overcards
- complete air
It would also help if we knew more about villain's OOP preflop flat then check to us on flop range looks like at this stack depth.
+ Or whether he has a donking range on this flop which conditionally affects his checking range.
If we bet and get c/c, we can certainly bet a Q turn for value and 2barrel A & K turns as a bluff.
But we only get these turns about 2*(3+4+4) = 22% of the time.
And a bet check bet line if villain checks to us on the turn, we check back turn on non [A,K,Q] turn, he checks to us on the river and we fire the river will get looked up a lot. So we only feel comfortable firing a Q river if we check back the turn.
I'm thinking a check back on the flop here is best.