I dont get the same result as you for your little "exercise" of sorting hands (end of page 32)If we take the K4o case :EV(f) when he folds, EV(c) when he calls , E= 35.98% (equity against his minraise/calling range both with stove and oracle)EV(f) =2BB EV(c) = 13*E -13*(1-E) = -3.64 BB EV(jam)=EV(f) P(f) +EV(c) P(c) P(f)=56.57% P(c)=43.43% (The range contains 99 hands. The minraise/calling range contains 43 hands.) this gives usEV(jam)= -0.45 BB and not -0.25BB Where am i wrong.... ?
i was curious and did the calc myself, i get a value of -0.273BB from the start of the hand.i put in his range for opening and stoved it against Kd4s. i devided the number of games played by the number of board run-outs fo two specific hands (1,712,304 games). that way i get that villain opens 683 combinations when we hold K4o, that's 53.6% of hands he gets dealt (51*25). doing the same with his calling range for a shove, i get that he calls a shove with 275 combinations and we have 35.99% equity against that range. the math then looks the following: EV=(683-275)/683*2BB - 275/683*(1-0.3599-0.3599)*13BB=-0.273 BBclearly your percentages for folding and calling are the issue, where did you get those numbers from, what do you mean with the number of hands his range contains?
Hello guys sorry for my english but can someone tell me my mistake in calc this EV from Ebook, where mers tell K4o have EVpush -0.25bb?When opp minraise pot=3bb and when we push we win this 3bb in 61%(FoldEquity=100%-23%/57.6%) or if he call in 39% we lose 12bb in 65% and win 14bb(3bb+11bb) in 35%My calc: EV=0.61 * 3bb + 0.39 * ( 14bb * 0.35 - 12bb * 0.65)=+0.7 bb
You are right lolI totally misscounted the percentage of the time he is calling and the percentage of the time he is folding. I was simply counting squares in the chart for this lol.When i replace in my equation the right P(c) and P(f) )that i get by entering ranges in oracle) P(c)=40.17% P(f)=59.83I get exact same result as yours. -0.274 BB thank you.
np.the strange thing is, if i calculate with raw pf ranges without taking card removal into account, i get exactly the same result. i don't understand this at all, shouldn't his calling range for a shove be influenced much harder than his opening range by us having a K?
i havent used card removal at all in the process, since i assume that card redundance is taken into account during the pokerstove equity calculations.dont you think ?
PokerStove correctly accounts for card removal in a hand vs a range - if called, you'll have the equity Stove says you do.However, you can't just say the percentage of times you get called is calling range divided by opening range. The possible hands your opponent actually has in his raising range when you have AA, compared with when you have 23o, are different. So those percentages depend on your hand. That's where the card removal effect comes in that Stove isn't attempting to account for. Ohly, I'm having a bit of trouble following the way you do it because of the combinations way of thinking about it, but yeah, if you're getting the same result as you get without including the card removal above, something's amiss. I just use ProPokerTools, which I've checked manually before enough to believe does it correctly.
Hi Mers, in first place congrats for u ebook u are awesome! I have some problems with this topic, 3bet with 10-15 bb. What is the popular tendencies with this stackS open raise in the btn (fish / and bad reg with dont work with "rofl") 30%, 40%, is too much or is correct? and i need know what is the u considerate call at 3bet with this stacks, i assume in gral the people tendencies is 21% minraise/call but i dont know if this correct. What do you think about this range http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/849/3betn.png/ vs Unknown - and plus a lot suited cards vs players with high frequencies of min raise in btn. This topic is very difficult but i need a starting point to work, thanks and congrats again. Sory about my poor english =)
Expectation is calculated form the start of the hand, that means you have to subtract 1 bb.That's for a comparison with the other option you have, from the start of the hand, that is folding.So: 0.73bb - 1bb = -0.27 bb -> Bingo!!!
ohh ty very much )))