So as Ry asked I post to forum my graph and my question as well:
I had last month 20% ROI at reg speed $7 at Stars with almost 600 tournaments, earlier 9.24% before seeing vids mostly with 730 tournaments - so I think I've improved my game in a lot of spots. But lately I've decide to move up at $15 and played 220 tournaments with -4.35 ROI, getting ITM little over 50%. I thought that my game just sucked because of moving up and tilts and then I've looked at EV graph at PT. I don't know if I'm reading it right, but when I check 'Display All-in EV' I see that I have about 5K won and 25K expected won (chips). So my question is I'm getting it right that this 20K difference is equal about 13'ish BI's in chips? Is that mean that I had bad run with my allins and should in theory have 13BI's more on my account? (in theory because I understand that this is just a stat:)). The reason I'm asking is that I don't know if I started to do something wrong, or just have bad run and I should just stick to my game and work it till success?
I also noticed something that many player will say that they have this feeling all the time;) I've lost since 1march in my opinion over 70% of coin flips and got hard time beeing sucked out at almost every possible river - not mention that every flop which is great and I told myself in mind 'oh great only 'X' will be a bad card - the bad card bumps in;) and another terrible on the river;) I know that this is a crying of unexperienced player - but seriously I know when something is too far from regular:)
so if someone will tell me that this graph below is becouse of suckouts I'll believe and play my game - but If not I'll have to pay more attention to my tilting sessions and staying sharp.
Regards,
overcome.
the EV line shows the expected win so If you win 60/40 situation for 10 bucks your EV line goes up 6 bucks and the green line goes up 10. Dont bother with conflips because when you flip EV stays flat. In the real situation you every time loose or win something more than you deserve. So yes it seems that you are still playing well and shouldnt bother with this. Dont know about how much relevant is the sample cause I have like never played regular speeds but asume its still HU and you will have swings :) Also taht you are playing well doesnt mean that you shouldnt work on your game and shouldnt try at least some turbos because you will probaly have problems to find action higher and could get really crushed on and game issues than.
Thank you for your support :-)
Its not huge sample obv but the only ive got from $15, acutally now, after another 40 or so, my graph looks even worse.. Ive played 2day 2 sessions, first I was up 60, then i've lost 80.. I've played vs. guy who was so easy to exploit I just dreamed that he will punch Accept button - but be careful what you wish for:) I've lost 5 out of 10 and mostly because of his random 3bets with f.ex 47s, where I hit top 2 pairs and he just continued with a 4 to turn trips:), or other time when I hit top 2 pairs he just continued with a backdoor flushdraw - that is something I cannot obv avoid but hey.. its a little bit frustrating when you are 20%roi player at 7$ and -5%roi at $15 - which shouldnt be so hard to beat..
Anywho, I cannot even consider swithing to turbos, becouse there is a bigger variance (not mention hypers) and now - when I have -30K chips from EV when I have 5K chips in so many hands is bigger than I can handle right now - so yeah advice is great in general, but for now I just cannot stand the fact to be constantly sucked out and count for any ROI between 1 and 5% ;-)
O.
and now im more under EV lol... it seems that every day I'm playing I running same sh... - now i have EV at 32K, and im -4K .. so its even bigger difference. Is there any other explanation? something with my game can affect that? I see a little drop at chart - was pretty steady and droped from 34K to 28K then reach back 32K again - so I guess that there could be some bad decisions I've made, but otherwise the chart seems to be running down from EV line each hand deeper... I've noticed that in 2 days my BB/Hand from BigBlind droped from 0 to -0.04 and from sb from 0.1 to 0.7 (at the same sample) but this is again something that I can reach in my starting hands like AA-QQ where I've accumulate about 2500 chips each with a 30-40 times having them - so its a pretty low numer, and i'm not a guy whos slowplaying those kind of hands, so either is fold PF or I'm beeing suckout ;)
But back to the Q: is there anything else that I should look into? I'm pretty sad having a swing -20BI's... I've came back at 7's but having hard time as well - im just not as angry as I'm loosing premiums at 15's.
I think you should do one thing :D
It seems you are constantly checking your EV after smaller and smaller samples and you get kinda obsessive about that. It it already doesnt it could start to influence your game in a bad manner. So do yourself a favor and stop checking that for lets say a week. Just play the best poker you can, its all that matters! I tell you that cause I had like the same issue. Be aware that your short term result are highly based on card distribution too. You can have like super high Ev over small samples just by getting better hands than your opponents. You could use the AHK script from the site here to hide your cashier and rematch popups. Try to calm and play as much volume as you can before you check the cashier and EV results. Do not be afraid to do that,if you are properly rolled for the game. Also consider that if you are not able to deal with the swing you probably play i little bit to high at the moment, so you should build up a bigger roll so that you dont have take care about running bad. I hope this is not to messy
I didn't have any roll issues when I was moving up - i had 120BI's - so yeah loosing 16 now isn't a dramatic punch, but still almost 15%. I'm super nit with BR, so I am never moving higher when I just don't feel like I'm ready. I'm playing now 7's again but honestly - this isn't that much of a difference in players abilities - still much agro maniacs - and i think that swing is mostly because of them. I'm just tired of seeing runners all the time - so that is my bigger concern than my roll. I've decide to do my best to go pro, so its just frustraiting when I'm starting to doubt my own abilities. And I've went down in stakes just becouse I can't stand pressure of loosing my only money for living;-)
I'm checking that graph since I've lost so much, and really I think it helps me somehow - reminding me that I should proceed with my game and don't give a fck. But I've never had 6 loosing days in my life - either at husng's or 18plyrs, or 9. I was crushing every game till that %#$% month ;) thats why I'm so interested in variance and EV graphs - maybe I'm looking for excuse of my bad play recently or maybe I have one :) i just don't know:)
About AHK script - I don't think it will work with mac?
Kind regards
o.
Ok. If you think checking the graph will help not to doubt your abilities, than no problem check it. On the other hand if you never had 6 loosing days in your life and crushed every game you honestly cant expect that in HU. It is not possible. What if you will have loosing month? You can expect that at any form of poker. I think its time to accept the reality because I dont know how much poker you have played until now but if you never had 6 loosing days its literarlly a hot run by itself no matter how your EV graph lools like :)
lol:)
Sample of over 13K games regular speed (but most of them was 18pl and 9pl reg speed). I had loosing days in general - just not 6 in a row :)
Nevertheless, thank you, cuz I know that this should help me to feel better:) It does in its own way:) Its just hard to influence a psychologist;-) thats my issue, I'm resistant to almost every influence from outside but still fighting with my own twisted mind:D thats my leak basicaly - at least the biggest one.
I've decided to step back again at 7's to gain my confidence back - hope it works:) Its just going to be annoying grinding back over 1/4 monthly winnings.
I have also another question - is there a way in PT3 to see expected ROI?
:) No problem do not leave your comfort zone unless you know why would you do that. 13K regular speeds is like a one real lifetime, isnt it? :D
I dont know PT3 I use PT4 but its probably gonna be simmilar. You could find it in My reports, within the comprehensive stats, you just create a new report or ad it in some of yours. If you are not familiar with adding new stats in to the report ľll tell you how, but its pretty easy.
hehe its quite a lot;-) especially that most of them was 18players:) so over 1h each;) but of cuz was multitabling them:) like 8-12 tables - much easier to do that then in HU :)
I will checkout reports section if I will have question I'll kindy ask for help but doubt it:)
I know why I should leave my comfort zone - this is simple as f...k ;) I just want to make more profit, and my BR allows me to go up - but when I've run so bad I've just had to go down to regain my peace;-) I know that is bad because I lost 16BI's at 15's and now I have to retrieve over 32 at 7's but still I think is better for me to slow down a bit :)