Hi, just want to make sure that my math calculations are right.1st - would like to know if I'm calculating EV for pushing - so..Considering 25bb effective stacks, villian opens 70% of hands and calls a push with 15%. Vs his call we will have 35% equity vs his range. Lets say villian opens 3x otb.EV = (0.85 * 6) + (0.15 * 0.35 * 50) - (0.15 * .65 * 50)= 5.1 + 2.625 - 4.875= 2.85bb's?2) How do we figure out the needed FE for a play to have 0 expected value. Lets say..20bb effective stacks. We both make it to the river with 8 bb's in the pot and we contemplate shoving our remaining stack oop for 16bb's. 3) how do we calculate the expected value for calling a shove on the river.eg pot is 900 and villian shoves river for 1000 covering our 750. So - 750 + 1000/ 750 = 2.333 +1 = 3.333. 1/3.333 = 30% equity needed to call? Hope this is enough infothanks
Blunt/fast reply... you're in the ballpark for the most part:1)I'm going to assume villain calls a push with 15% of the hands that he opens with (so actually 10.5% here)EV = P(Fold)*(amount we make when he folds) + P(Call)*(P(win)*(amount we get back he calls and we win) - amount we invested)EV = (0.85)*(4BB) + (0.15)*[(0.35)*(50BB) - (24BB)]EV = 2.425 BBs2)If you never win when villain calls, and you never win if you check, this is just:EV = P(Folding)*(amount in pot) - P(calling)*(additional money we put in).EV = p*8 - (1-p)*16. Then the breakeven point is p = 2/3, or ~.67So villain has to fold 67% of the time for it to be a breakeven play.3)Forget the 1000 -- you only have 750. Pot is 900, villain shoves 750. So if you call, the total pot is 900 + 750 + 750 = 2400, and you're investing 750, so you have to be good at least 31.25% of the time to be profitable.My recommendation is to spend time with a tool like PokerStove and develop an intuition for the calculations -- way more important than being able to push them out.Also sorry if any of my calcs are wrong :(. Quick response.
much, much, much thanks skates!er - #3, ya pretty retarded to factor in the 1000 - for all grade 6 math students and anyone else who realizes what a stupid error this was I would like to appoligize to them and to all persons who have read this thread.