Villain was obviously bad to this point, but based upon his play to here, I never dreamed it was this bad...What I cannot understand is this guy is ITM almost 55% with over 100 games. I encountered a similar bad player with even better stats in as many games a few days ago. And here I am, trying to be a "good" player and I'm very happy to be ITM 55%. I understand it's a very small sample, but still...LOL No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$10.00+$0.50Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converterSBTJFrazee101525 BBHero1475 Effective Stacks: 49bbBlinds 15/30
- Pre-Flop (45, 2 players) Hero is BB
TJFrazee10 calls 15, Hero checks
- Flop (60, 2 players)
Hero checks, TJFrazee10 bets 60, Hero calls 60
- Turn (180, 2 players)
Hero bets 125, TJFrazee10 raises to 450, Hero goes all-in 1385, TJFrazee10 calls 935
- River (2950, 2 players, 1 all-in)
- Final Pot: 2950
- TJFrazee10 shows a pair of Nines
- Hero shows a straight, Five to Nine
- Hero wins 2950 ( won +1475 )
- TJFrazee10 lost -1475
Positive variance? 100 games is a very very small sample to judge about his ITM %
Hey qattack,I have a question here...Is flatting the best play here?6 outs (3,3,3,8,8,8); I think the 8 is good since he didn't raise on the button (so JT is unlikely)6 outs = around 16%, pot odds are 60/180 = around 33%since our chance to hit 16% < 33%, we don't have the odds to call.Me, I think I would just fold or raise.If we raise instead; we have: (15+30+15+60+180+120) = 420, so we have 180/420 = 0.42Since he limped his button, I think there is a high chance that he is gonna fold to a check raise. So the high fold equity we have make up for the bigger pot odds 0.42 (raising) > 0.33 (calling).However, I am not sure between folding and raising. Are the fold equity we have make up for 0.16 < 0.42 ?(qattack, what's your idea behind your calling?)Is my reasonning make sense or did I just pulled that of my !@#$%?Still trying to learn here :)
I didn't include some reads on this hand...I felt if I hit my straight, he'd be paying me off with a bunch of chips. He'd also been quite aggressively raising my bets. I had not tried a checkraise, but I had a notion that he'd be likely to shove on that, too.This is the reason I led the turn after I hit. I wasn't sure he'd take another stab, but I was pretty sure from the way he'd been playing, he would spaz out against this bet. So I did expect the turn raise with a huge range.After he made that raise, I really didn't see any value in flatting there, as the pot was plenty big that I wouldn't mind too much taking it down right there. Also, I think he calls a lot of hands he may check back on the river. Not sure about K6o, lol.My idea behind flat calling was that I can get away from this hand and based on other tendencies this Villain has, I believe I still have a great edge. He'd shoved over four of my open raises to this point if I'm not mistaken and made two other enormous 3Bs. I had no hand in any of those situations, but eventually I would get one.Once he did call my preflop raise, he folded to nearly every cbet. Also, every hand that I'd limped (when I was IP), if he checked, he folded to a stab.
@sierikas...yes, certainly positive variance. It's hard for me to put into words why I posted this. I think the best I can say is because it is a good display of how bad players can win in the short term, and this streak can continue for quite a long time.While I understand this (and conversely losing streaks by good players), I am still constantly amazed that something like this can happen.
@bonafontz: Raising is never an option here unless you have some very specific reads - IMHO, check/raising the flop in a limped pot is fish's way of playing a draw.In a limped pot, nobody really has anything - you can't expect your opponent to bet if you check to him. Another important difference to a raised pot is that there's no dead money in the middle, so you'd risk a lot of chips to win almost nothing. Since you can't expect your opponent to bet in this situation, why would you go for a c/r if you actually had a hand ? Instead, you'd rather lead out to get some value and not risk giving him a free card.Well, so much for game theory ... but this is lower stakes. Here, you can't expect your opponent to be very intelligent. And against a fish, you don't have to balance your lines, so you could simply take the line that's best for your particular holding.With a draw against a fish, you shouldn't build a huge pot oop without a good reason but instead just see a cheap turn card and just make him pay when you hit. It costs you very little to flat here for just one street, and you can win a lot of chips if he calls you off for two streets or even more when you hit. Furthermore, a fish is a lot less likely to fold weak holdings against a c/r - so you if you miss the turn, you'll have a difficult turn decision oop in a huge pot with little change that he'll fold. And if he comes over the top, you even need to fold your draw.For the c/r to be profitable, you need to know that he's cabable of folding King-high or some random gutshot here. It's a good line against someone who attacks every limped pot when checked to him and gives up to any kind of aggression - many bad / break-even players do this, but you should still have that read.However, I'd still lead out for a smallish bet here since it's likely that he'll just fold if he missed this flop completely.
@qattack: Well, ironically, I wanted to ask a similar question regarding "good" players.I've been running exceptionally bad over the last 6 weeks - though I must admit that I probably shouldn't call myself emotionally stable enough to play this game at the moment due to a lot of stress and family problems, so there's certainly some tilt involved ...Well, it has happened to me many times that someone had really decent stats, but did some extremely weird things. Unfortunately, this has always set my off completely, often causing me to drop several buy-ins to them :-(For instance, some 5% ROI winner starts the match against me extremly aggressive, 3betting and check/raising me a ton. Then, some hand, I finally decide to play back at them and call down just to see some ridiculous trash - like 3bet with complete junk, then bet/called flop with complete air, no pair no draw no showdown-value, then hit their miracle card at the turn. Rematch, they start extremely aggressive again - but now, they always have the stone cold nuts whenever I call. Like, no even top-pair decent kicker being good enough anymore.Or - other example - decent 5% ROI winner 3bet/calls at 25/50 with some ridiculous junk like 27s. Then, in the rematch, they even seem to increase their 3betting-frequency at 25/50 - and I adjust by shoving just a little bit lighter over their 3bets. But now, BANG BANG BANG, they always have the goods.Third example is where - after playing them for a while - I get the feeling that their frequencies simply don't match up. Let's look at your particular hand again:Let's say we actually had Q9 here - we lead flop for 3/4 pot-size, they flat. Then we lead this turn and get raised - opponent is a 5% ROI winner at $50+ - so we'd probably fold here. Or let's say we even have a set here, they also flat the turn and the board runs out a lot more ugly (like 4 to a flush / 4 to a straight etc.) than it did here and we'd get shoved on at the river.So we'd keep folding, and folding, and folding in these spots - assuming that our opponent is a good player, so he his line wouldn't make sense with a weaker hand / bluff. But then, after doing this a few times, we suddenly realise that he's raised us in these spots a few times too often. And by the time we do realize that, we already lost more than half our stack to them and when we do play back, they just automatically have it.So frustrating.