I thought this hand was a no-brainer, but one of my friends - a top player on Bodog made me question my assumptions.Stacks are 1500 and it's 10/20. I minraised KhKc and get a flop of AhThAc. I bet 40 into 80 and get raised to 120. I reraise to 360 so that his flush draws and gutters with overs can shove over me. It's not a good spot if I call and a straight or flush card comes. Plus, I don't want a hand like JT to get scared if the turn is a Q. I'm worried about trips since people play any A to a minraise, but trips or better will flop only ~2% of the time. I get shoved on and call. He certainly wasn't rebluffing or shoving a draw - he had trips. My friend's recommendation is to fold to a shove and just call on the flop instead of reraising. I ran some PS equity calcs with hands I felt my opponent would shove with and KK is only barely ahead. Is reraising the flop wrong against someone who isn't particularly aggressive? I later decided that it wasn't optimal since if a flush card hits, I have a nut flush draw (also making it less likely my opponent has a flush) and I'm blocking a lot of the overcard gutters with my KK (also blocking KT). On the other hand, even if I don't reraise, I don't really see myself folding on later streets. Another top player on Bodog told me that the river would be a fold. What do you guys think is the optimal line? What if the board was 7hTh7c?
I'd just call, the hand will play out easily from there. He may shut down. If he leads I'd continue on a Hearts (flushdraw), Ace (fullhouse) or King (fullhouse) turn cards. If I dont make flush on the river it is an easy fold. So I'm folding a lot.I don't think may people are bluff shoving on that flop (fish will), so whatever they shove has good equity anyway.A random hand has a 2% chance of flopping trips. If he is folding a good percentage out of position then he has increased his chances of having trip Aces. If he check raises he has just increased those chances further (or so I would say). If he then shoves over your reraise it is now even likely he has trips. Through the process of elimination there is a good chance he has trip aces :)
Well, it was a -10% ROI fish who was calling about 85% of my minraises. That's why I was so surprised by most people's recommendations. Perhaps it's a leak of mine.Are you folding the turn if it's a meaningless card like a deuce and he continues firing or do you wait for the river?
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If it comes a deuce I'd fold.
Interesting, I'm definitely not as tight but perhaps it works better for me due to my high bluff frequencies. On what kind of paired board are you willing to raise KK? Is 7hTh7c a good candidate for you?
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Lol maybe I'm just a nit. But I will increase my calling frequency (on later streets) based on how many times he has raised pair boards etc.If he is bluffy I would play the hand how you did. Because 85% calling range misses that flop a LOT and he will probably bluff on future streets. But if he is calling 85% of the time oop that means you have seen and c-betted a lot of flops (maybe, though it is still 10/20), so you should have an idea if he likes to check raise flops.I'd love to reraise that flop with a draw that beats trip aces because of the fold equity you get from his bluffs, the problem is its not a great board to bluff (from his perspective), its the type of board you raise with trip aces or a draw (more trip aces as there are lots of hands to get value from that have trouble flatting). So we are not getting much fold equity there. And Kings are such a good made hand that I wouldnt want to play them for fold equity, a draw or a 10 would be much better.Without many reads I'm just flatting, the same with a paired 7 board.
I like a call on the flop, I think you answered this for yourself in the original post here.As for the river, you should ask your buddy how he can say something like "Another top player on Bodog told me that the river would be a fold." That's not a very good sign, when somebody makes a very general statement but gives you a specific action to follow.You're calling because you beat most hands, and raising folds out many weaker ones and does not put you in a particularly favorable spot vs a tighter player (against looser and spewier guys, you not only have value from weaker draws, but you get rebluffed so often, so repopping it to 360 or so and snapping a shove or reshoving if he messes around more is going to be fine against those player types). So why is this player saying "the river is a fold?" What if he bets the turn and river as 2c, 4d? You're really folding to two bets on that board? It's one thing to have a specific read or "if he's very nitty" "if you have history and he never bluffs" but to generally say "the river is a fold" like that is very bad.
Fabinho was referring to folding the river vs this loose passive player type and not as a completely general statement.Anyway, I'm leaning towards calling in this situation but I don't think raising is absolutely terrible due to my image. I'm bluffing those boards about half the time so I won't get as much credit as most people. I'm not convinced that he's folding a decent T to my raise but I might be projecting.
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