Hey guys,I have 2 questions about EV line which haunt me at night.Question 1. What is happening to the EV line when you win chips, but you don't go to a showdown. Eg. you got to the river and you fold or you make someone fold. I know how the EV line sums up all the EV diffs from the all in situations. I just don't know what it does with these folding spots. Question 2. A lot of people are confused in how running above or under EV works. Basicly, when you are a good player, you get it in with the best hands, therefore your EV line rises steadily. But weather you run above, or under EV, is a 50-50 chance right? It's just a matter of luck. And in the long run the profit line is always approximatelly following the EV line. Is this correct?Eg. If I make myself a goal to make 1000$ on the EV line, the chane that the profit line will be above or under 1000$ is 50-50? And how big the swings are going to be, will depend on how high my ROI is right? If anyone understands these concepts, I will be very thankfull ;)
Q1:Difference between EV line and winnings line is not a matter about if you dont go to showdown. At river you have 3 possible scenarios, either you win 100%, 0% or tie the pot so just going to showdown is not going to cause difference between these two lines. Same happens when you/villain folds ->the winning player gets 100% of the equity worth of the pot. Q2:Basically yes, at any given point you can run over/under your expectation. The more games you play the more likely you are going to be relatively close to your true ROI. How big your swings are going to be is basically determined by your standard deviation/game which is determined by your winrate(which also affects your ROI so basically your right). Good news is that unless you are soul crushing(winning roughly over 70%) or loosing ridiculous ammount your standard deviation will be really close to 0,9-0,95. Using just 1 for whatever brm calculations is pretty safe assumption. I did a pretty terrible job explaining these things so maybe some native speaker maybe able to help you more.
Virrpa thanks for the reply.How did you mean the thing with 0,9-0,95 % deviation? Can you use a real life example? And for the Q1. What I was basicly unsure of, is that what happens to EV line when you win the chips when you don't go to a showdown( your opponent folds). Since we take the pot down immidiately, it's as if we took 100% value of those chips, and counted that expected value to all the other expected values in $'s of a particular tournamnet ? And than we have an expected value for a single tournament which is sketched on the graph---> and that is then connected to the other tournament and so on and so on and than we have a nice EV girafe?I think I understand it, I just want to re-assure myself.