I've played 600 HU SNGs, all at the 2.15 level FTP turbo. My ROI is 20%, but I have lost so many times to complete maniacs with garbage & 3 to 5 out that it tilts me. So what I'm looking for is a better understanding of how big the luck factor really is.
The answer to the following question gives me a good idea - What would the win rate of a coach on this site be playing $6 turbo structure on FTP? The structure is fast & the play is super aggressive - I believe that goes a long way toward negating skill.
When thinking about the answer to this question (if you do) don't think that players are passive & that you can run them over because you can't, they are hyper aggro. And if you're thinking you an trap them, yes you can but you have to get that hand before the blinds eat your stack & your opponent has to have something. Also hand reading is pretty much out the window vs more than half of the opposition, they merge ranges so that everything looks the same.
20% ROI sounds pretty hot to me.
I honestly don't want to give an answer though, because I've seen a lot of higher ROIs in say the $110s turbos on FTP compared to the Stars turbos yet Stars structure is much much slower. I'm guessing that FTP's 110s are just that much softer than Stars', but it's kind of baffling to think they could be that much worse.
You do make some good points in your post about there being a higher luck factor in these games, but:
Players that merge all of their hands bc they are that aggro can be exploited. It may be high variance at times, but honestly if a guy is open shoving every hand preflop, the "high variance" is very short term, you'll have a killer winrate in the long run, so if you take that exaggerated example and apply it to these games, think about the question below:
Which of these scenarios do you have a higher long term winrate in for FTP turbo structure?
1) Games where players are hyper aggressive and constantly bet (as you described the $6s)
or
2) Games where players don't bet nearly as much, are fairly loose and passive but kind of know what they are doing
I would say scenario 1 because the players are actually playing much worse. While players in scenario 1 can feel tougher to play, that is mostly due to the fact that you often have to adapt in such an extreme way that you are not used to, so you are less comfortable. But, you are also more profitable often times.
You may not like to call down with 3rd pair vs 3 huge bets, but if the guy does it every hand it is clearly very profitable. Meanwhile, you may find comfort in the back and forth c-bet, fold, c-bet call, hand read turn and river type loose passive players you often find, but if they are somewhat competent on hand selection you'll more often be in deciding game situations in the high blinds. If they are somewhat decent in the end game, you won't have nearly as big of an edge as you would vs the maniac who fires 3 barrels.
So, I don't have the type of answer you probably had in mind when you posted this question, but I think I may have offered some value in other ways to your question.
People who play on FTP more regularly than me (less than 1k games lifetime) can chime in with their opinion or view, I'm curious as to what others think.
thanks for the response. it does make some sense.
it's probably the complete lack of control that I don't like (for example i really hate 4-bet shoving AK or a pair of Tens vs a maniac who tables 34s & wins, and then of course goes off in chat) and the fact that i rarely get to apply the hand reading i pick up from watching videos, but like you said it's higher ev long term. (just for the record i haven't played the $6s, just the 2.15s. i randomly picked $6 to represent low limit play & assumed that it would be similar to the $2).
If the win rates are high at FTP maybe the over aggro play extends to higher limits, that would be good to know. Another thing to consider is that hourly is much higher because the games are over very quickly. My average game is 6 minutes, the last 100 games average is 4.5 minutes because I've taken to playing a very SNGWiz based game which has me getting the money in fairly often on 3 bet shoves. (I run holdem manager & if a guy is raising over 80% of buttons you can shove unexploitably pretty wide pretty early on)
MastAAce08
dude i love playing hyper aggro players, you just have to learn how to play them. If you play really tight and try to wait for hands, u'll just get owned. If you get cards its easy, but you won't always get cards. You have to realize the math behind poker. both players get dealt two random cards and over time the win rate will even out to 50%. When your opponent is being super aggro, he obviously doesnt have hands every time so you have to play back at him with a wider range of hands. View mid pair as top pair, bottom pair as mid pair ect. Just dont be afraid to put the money in against him. You'll be suprised how many times your bs is good!! hope this helped..
MastAAce08