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meatwad's picture
Mersenneary Video 17

I and a lot of other posters seem to be interested in learning how to make the f and h calculations you make in this video.  I feel like without knowing how to make these calculations I'll have a very hard time applying these concepts to my BB play.  I also feel like my BB play is the weakest part of my game.  Please help! MW

rendalli's picture
example calculation

I don't want to be arrogant and answer for mersenneary as he will be able to answer it more precisely, but I just had some time waiting for an opponent: If you want to do this in pokerstove it will be a bit long, but I will quickly show how you can do it: You have A5o and are 20BB deep Take a typical villains calling range (for example very nitty 15.8%):  66+,A6s+,KTs+,QJs,A6o+,KQo (not very realistic, but change it as you like) Take a typical villain opening range, for example a 61.7%: 22+, A2s+,K2s+, Q2s+, J8s+, T9s, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o, 43oIf you shove, he will call 15.8/61.7=25.6% of the time and he will fold 74.4% of the time. (I don't consider card removal here as some Ax and 5x combos will be missing in both ranges - more regarding to this at the end). If he calls, you have 35.142% equity with your A5 against his (tight) calling range. If you look at the point where you had the choice to either fold or push, you had 19BB left and 3 BB where in the pot (your posted BB and the 2BB raise). So it will play out like this: 74.4% of the time, your stack will go to 22 because he folds this means 74.4% of the time you will win 3BB this gives you 0.744*3=2.232BB 25.6% of the time he will call and in these cases you will win 21BB 35.142% of the time and loose 19BB 64.858% of the time. So in these cases you will "win" 0.256*0.35142*21 - 0.256*0.64858*19 = -1.265BB => All in all, you will win 2.232BB-1.265BB=0.96BB by this play so this is obv. very profitable. Now you can do this for different opening % of villain. In my example I just about hit mersennearys h-definition, that means if he is opening 61% hero will win 1BB by shoving which means he will have more chips than at the beginning of the hand. In mersennearys video his h-number for 20BB and A5o was actually 50% which has to do with the different calling-ranges we took. Obv. we take any +EV spot - so we can gladly push even between the f and h value. But if we have a hand that doesn't play that great postflop, mersenneary assumes that we wont be able to gain more than 1BB by calling and playing the hand out (which is pretty hard to prove, but pretty reasonable - imo it could even be lower for a hand like A5o) - so if he opens more than the h-value reshoving would be "perfect". It's obv. easier to do such calcs in Stox-Ev as you can consider the opponents opening % as a variable and draw a graph for different values - I got the commercial version so I'm not sure if its possible to make that graph in the trial version. For my concrete example stox-ev gives me -0.97 so its very close to the value I calculated above (-0.96) so cardremoval-effects seem to be very small.