AK the most overplayed hand in poker? With alot of these videos i see from Croixdawg all the way down to others seem to call AK quite a bit even when they seem to know they are at a flip with blinds low and even stacked. I dont really understand why this is, when they know they have an significant edge over their opponent and could wait for a better spot then calling an all in with AK and just flip. With cash my understanding is to push AK and is worth the flip and you'll still most likely be playing that opponent and could get your chips back, where sitngoes you lose the match all together. What % of the time is a decent player 4betting AJ. The only hand you have an edge over most of the time is AQ only and what % of the time is that going to happen? Should you still be concerned with a +EV play and be looking at overall chip gain with AK? or looking at more of a strategy that will win you the match. I heard Phill Hellmuth last night on Poker after Dark talking about all the internet players overplaying AK as a bad strategy while playing a sitngo. I'm not a big supporter of his, but still there is no doubt he's a great player. Croixdawg is the man...so i must be wrong on this....would love some feedback. thx
You're never far behind with AK, at worst you're a 43% underdog. Add fold equity, and the fact that you're a favorite over a ton of villain's pushing ranges, and a call is a no brainer.
At least that's how I see it...might be wrong though. Generally I would never fold AK to a shove...
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Goats!!! MORE GOATS!!!
I should have madeit more clear. Pushing is one thing when you consider fold equity etc.
Make things absolutely clear.... if you both have around 1500 or so in chips and blinds at 15/30. Villian raises
to 90, you rr to 270-300 and he shoves and you put him on a flip. You know you have an good edge over him
...why would you call?? Yes its -EV in the way that you are losing chips long
term, but why not wait for a better spot to win the match?
Slatey, there are 2 situations with AK preflop:
1) You made 3bet and villain shoves. You already put something like 180-270 chips in the pot (for the 10/20 and 15/30), so you have good pot odds. Lets say it's a first hand, both have 1500 stacks, and you 3bet to 200 on his 60. If he shoves, you need to put another 1300 to win 3000, so you need to win 43,3% of time. If you sure that villain's range is 22+ or AKo, your AKo has 43,5%. So, it's a neutral move. But if you add some weaker hands, like AQ on his range, your EV will inscrease and such move is +EV. If you made bigger 3bet, for example 270-300 chips (which is usual at 15/30 level), you odds will be much better.
Yes, it's not very good to flip with bad player in the beginning of the match, but losing 200 chips with a premium hand is much worse IMO.
2) If you bet and villain 3bets, it's obvious +EV to push, because you have fold equity and he may call you with a worse hand, like AT-AJ.
Actually when both players are very agressive preflop, shoving and calling ranges can be more wide. There is bunch of players who 3bet or even 4bet any siuted ace, many broadway combinations (like KQ, KJs) if your opening/3bet range is wide.
The concept of waiting for a better spot is a misconception that a lot of people have. In HUSNGs, the amount of chips you have has a direct relation to how frequently you will win the match. Think of it this way...
Consider two people who have perfectly even skill. If they each have 1500 chips, then they will each win 50%. If one has 2250 chips, then that person will win 75% of the time.
If the 2250 chips guy faces an all-in and is holding AK then he is probably ahead of his opponents range which alone should make this a call, but suppose he is exactly 50% against his opponent. The dead money in the pot alone should make this a call. Reason being, if he doubles up his opponent then he is losing 25% chance to win the match, if he beats his opponent then he gains 25% chance to win the match (100%). If he folds, he gives up the dead money in the pot which is adding 1%+ to his opponents chance to win. Even if you completely neglect the edge that AK has over the opponent's range, it is still optimal to get in because you are choosing between giving up a small edge versus something that is neutral. The call is also better in terms of $/hour because the small edge is over virtually no time if you can get a rematch.
The only way that finding a "better spot" is really applicable is if there is a huge difference in skill, the edge on the hand is close to neutral, AND the opponent probably won't take a rematch. Under these circumstances it might be applicable if your opponent is basically giving money away and you don't want to risk flipping him on something that is close to even. Without these cirumstances you are almost always giving up an edge and/or giving up money off of your hourly rate.
Unless you play poker for fun...why wouldnt you play only players you have a big edge over??
There is enough losing players to play out there under $200 games if you have your money on all diff.
sites and really game selecting. For max +EV just wait. I'm new to HUSNG somewhat and am really suprised
at some of the crappy players out there even at the $500 level that Croixdawg has played. Some of the plays
they made just blow me away for that level. I say all that to say...your edge should most always be big so
to wait for a better spot and not flip just so you wont lose 300 chips seems spewy. I remember in a few of Croixdawgs
videos him saying he shouldve waited for a better spot rather than flip knowing his edge.
I haven't read any responses, but stately, if you've alreayd committed 270-300 chips (minimum 20% of effective stacks), you should be taking flips ALLLLLLLLLLL day, and remember, it's not only about your edge or your winrate, it's about your hourly rate, even if AK is only 46% vs their hsoving range, it's a SNAP CALL after committing a decent amount of chips with a 3bet, even if it was just to 180 at (10/20) like on stars structure, you can do some simple math to verify this, but it's a significantly +EV situation even if you are flipping with their range, and impacts your hourly rate in a positive way, so SNAPPPPPPPP that off baby
Thx primo but.......
What does your hourly rate have to do with calling a flip all in?
After watching your video on Cake i was really suprised to see you flip against a guy
you said you had a signif. edge over. Why wouldnt you wait for a better spot to trap him or
whatever to take him down........but i do understand the point of view from a EV chip count.
Also, how can you say a 50/50 is +EV....dont understand your logic.
Would love to hear from Croixdawg if your around.
The 50/50 is +EV because there is money in the pot. Thus, you are choosing between giving your opponent the chips in the pot or taking a 50/50 chance against him.
In other words, say you have 7c3c on Ac7d3d your opponent shows you AdJd on a board that is Ac 7d 3d. This match up is exactly 50% (creepy, right?).
Board: Ac 7d 3d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 495 0.00 { AdJd }
Hand 1: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 495 0.00 { 7c3c }
Lets say there are 100 chips in the pot, and you guys each have 1450 behind. If you call you will each average a profit of 50 chips, whereas if you fold you average a profit of 0 chips and your opponent averages 100.
It is better for your hourly rate to take this edge because you can take the advantage here then just "wait for a better spot" in another game.
exactly, it's a 50/50 (flip) , but if you fold, you are giving up 20% of your stack in this situation, so it's like a flip with huge overlay, a similar situationw ould be like a 3 handed game, Player A raises, player B reraises, you Call w/AKs, player A shoves, player B folds crippling himself (basically eliminating him from the game)... You think you are flipping vs his range but think you have a huge edge you can extract later on... should you fold here and 'wait for a better spot'
(obv not, because your getting a ton of extra odds because of the dead $$$ in the pot)
I know this is a bit of an off-topic example, but when you 3bet, and he shoves, and ur flipping vs his range, u have HUGE overlay, and simple math can show you how bad folding is here, so yes, when you've committed alot of chips, you will want to flip allllll day long
I think the common wisdom is that AK is the most overplayed hand (as per OPs post) but I would content that this could very well be true in MTTs, STTs, 9 man cash games and even deeper short handed games, including hu cash (or deep stacked husngs if you will).
But for heads up sngs, the combination of only one opponent, rising blinds and shorter effective stacks (generally you start with 50-75bbs) make playing AK very strong preflop super standard.
I don't play many other forms of poker besides heads up sngs, so I can't expand much further from there any better than most other winning mid to high stakes players on here, but I think there is a big difference between playing AK in a husng and playing it in a deeper stacked/multi person format.
I think hands like KJo, suited connectors with short effective stacks and just a general misplay of position (you could add like AQ, AJ or AT to this as well I suppose) are the most commonly overplayed hands in heads up sngs.