No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$20+$2 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter BBPodarok_N11635 SBHero1365 Effective Stacks: 46bb Blinds 15/30 Pre-Flop (45, 2 players) Hero is SB Hero raises to 70, Podarok_N1 calls 40 Flop (140, 2 players) Podarok_N1 bets 70, Hero calls 70 Turn (280, 2 players) Podarok_N1 bets 140, Hero calls 140 River (560, 2 players) Podarok_N1 bets 460, Hero...This was a heads up MTT, second round I think. Villain has 11% roi at 20 avi over about 600 games. He had 3 bet before this hand, and had also donked a couple of flops, at least 1 of them as a bluff. So I call the flop because I think I'm good a decent percentage and there's no value in raising. I decide to call the brick on the turn because he gives me 3:1 and I think he can be doing it with Ax or better, a pure bluff or a heart draw, so still a pretty wide range.Now the decision I have a tough time with is the river, and the reason is how big his bet is. I don't think he ever bets that big for value with just Ax, and I'm pretty sure he 3-bets PF with AA, QQ, JJ, AQ, AJ. So when he bets so big on the river, I think he can only have KT, A7, A2, or a bluff. What do you guys think? I'm interested in whether you think my hand reading is correct in this spot, and also in how likely you think a decent random at the 20$ level is to make a big bluff there with missed hearts.Thanks!
If you really don't think he'll play a single pair Ax this way then I think you absolutely need to call.You have information that he's bluff led before, it's common for some players to do so with weak draws or any sort of draws, especially the weaker sizing.On the other hand, it can be common to "small bet, small bet, huge bet" big flopped hands, but your description doesn't give me any reason to believe that this is the only option from this player.Basically, his range is way too polarized if you can discount single pair Ax type hands and weighted towards too many bluffs and I would say a call would be the best play in that case.
Thanks for the advice. I just needed confirmation that a call can be right if I am correct in my assumptions and it's not just spew.I did call, and he showed me KT, which doesn't invalidate the thinking i guess. HokieGreg said he thinks people are more likely to make a big triple barrel with air in lower boards, and he didn't think a bluff was too likely on this one. Do you find that assumption (about the board type) true in average for villains?