Hi i'm a new member because i want to learn how i can make a good approach to analyse a hand. It's looks like an easy hand, i want to know if it's better to CB or to check behind. I made some thinking but don't now if it's good or the exact math. Anyone an idea?Seat 2: BB (1655)Seat 3: Hero (3345)Hero posts small blind (25)BB posts big blind (50)---Dealing pocket cardsDealing to Hero: [Ad, 9d]Hero raises 75 to 100BB calls 50--- Dealing flop [Qh, 6c, 4h]BB checksHero bets 100BB raises 250 to 250Hero foldsAsume he calls 45% in the BB and that he 3bets 88+, Ajo+, AT+, Kqs and Qjs. When the flop comes, I think when i CB he fold 55% of his range, he checkraise20% (FD, set, 2 pair) and calling 25% (4 or 6, gutshots, few FD some highcards)I want to barrel every turn card higher then an 7 (no q) and hearts (asume he cr most of his draws)River, when he checks a heart i gonna bet most of the time, asume he leads FD, Don't bet Q 4 and 6, most scarecardsso we win 55% when we CB, if we get a call i think we can win 50%. we're obv folding to a CR so losing 20%I think i win like 70% when i CB here and losing like 30%.Other options, if i check back my hand is pretty face up, that i have a ace-high hand. Also facing very often an turn lead, also river leads. It's gonna be hard to win the pot so i think i lose like 80-85% the hand.Is this a reasonable approach for the hand? And what about the math?Thanks
Disclaimer: I'm no pro or anything. I think you're fine with the cbet. The cbet can easily hit his calling range. Imo in HUSNG's the calling range of a lot of players is going to be very wide for the min raise. I think it's very possible he's got AX or KX and QX can hit him too. Lets say Q5+ would be my guess but that is kind of loose. I think Q6 could hit him and the suited connectors as well. I would cbet and fold to a raise with no questions. Unless the player has been raising your cbets a lot his raise narrows his range down immensly. Qx seems very likely to me. Could be Q6 as well. You never mentioned how this player plays though. Whether or not he's folding to raises or not.I'm not too into math so I can't help you there.
Thanks, also find it hard how to see what is a better betsize 1/2 pot or 3/4 pot. How do you approach that?
as far as bet sizing goes i usually like to let the board texture and villains tendancies dictate.as a default i usually bet 60-70% pot,but may bet as low as 50% on really dry flops like A72r or 662r ect and am more inclined to bet larger on more connected flops that have plenty of draws.however if villain is willing to call pot sized bets with 2nd or 3rd pair when i have a value hand im quite happy to oblige him/her