So im farly new to hypers and after about 1.5k games i noticed my showdown and no showdown winnings are crazy far from each other, can someone explain this graph better to me? (i am aware 1.5k games is not a huge sample but bare with me pls) http://i.imgur.com/LMNr2kz.jpg
You're playing an aggressive style, that's it ;) You're making money mostly by making people fold.
I got the exact same king of SD /NSD line and I'm a winning player.
just take care of not missing value because of your sizings.
Also bout your blue line keep in mind that :
if when you're taking a +EV bluff spot, everytime you succeed your redline is going up and everytime you get called, your blue line is going down.
So,in conclusion, if you're a winning very aggressive player, having a great straight redline and a breakevenish SD blue line is good (especially vs recs). Vs regs you'll see that both are going up
But just focus on yellow line ;)
Thanks, but about the yellow line, i dont really get it.. if im shoving pretty wide on 10 -5 bbs im likely to be called a lot when im behind right? would you explore this if you have a better understanding then me?
ps; ive been shoving a lot into KK Ax where im dominated etc, but im aware that i can just be running like baby jesus in this sample.
I have so many questions fml, might need 30 minutes from a coach sometime to answer all my stuff or i will clog up this forum.
When you're open shoving between 5/10 bb, you're aiming to do better than folding.
EV(fold) = -0.5 BB (you're losing your Sb)
EV (shoving) = (% your opponent is folding x what you win when he folds) + (% your opponent is calling x what you win or lose when he calls)
with :
% your opponent is folding : FE
what you win when he folds : you win 1bb if you compare to your stack before the hand starts (before posting your Sb)
% your opponent is calling : 1 - % your opponent is folding = (1 -FE%)
what you win or lose when he calls : (the equity of your range - the equity of your opponent range) * effective stack
Let's take an example : effective stack is 6 BB.
Your OS range is only 98s
Your opponent is calling you only with AKo; AKs; JJ+ (3% of deck) so it means he's folding 97% (that's your FE)
Equity (your range aka 98s VERSUS opponent range) is around 28%
then Ev (shove) = 0.97 * 1 bb + (1-0.97)*(28%-72%)*6bb = 0.97 + 0.03* (-0.44) * 6 = 0.97-0.0792 = 0.89
So by shoving 98s versus someone who is calling only AKo; AKs; JJ+ ; you'll win in average 0.89 BB
in conclusion, when you're shoving a lot at this stack depth, the chips you'll lost when you get called will be less than the chips you're winning when your opponent folds ;)
You should play with software like Equilab (free) and coffeecalc. When you'll have a bigger sample, look how much % your opponents are calling you for different stack depths and calculate the range you should shove
Im aware of nash eq and icm, i use icmzier, what im trying to say is that i might be making money of off shoving light but my ev line could go down even if im playing as mathematically sound as i can, is that right?
thanks for the help btw, all info are welcome.
yeah it's possible for example if you're pushing the bottom of your range and get call by the top of your opponent' range. But only on small samples.
A good way to be sure if you're not pushing too much hands is to make session review and to be objective, not trying to justify poor shoves
Yeah thats good advice, altho' for ex i could be pushing lets say J7s (wich is +0.36% on nash and i think i could push much lighter then nash at this level) i get called by JT QK or whatever... so my all in EV line would go down but i was still right to get it in there.
Let me be clear that im not trying to justify anything here, im beating the game for 5%+ over 1.5k hands and my EV ROI isnt even 1% lower, i DO realize 1.5k is a small sample tho.
Anyway, i am just trying to figure out how accurate the EV line really is taking all of this into account.
yes you can push wilder than Nash. Your criteria to push a hand should be how much equity this hand will have versus the calling range of your opponent.
as you say 1.5K is not a huge sample in spin. For example really good players at 60$ have breakevenish graph for hundreds of games.
But still you can use this formula to have a rough idea ;)
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=45984526&postcount=1463
Which stake are you playing btw ?
Edit : coffee maths videos are nuts to understand the OS spot ... and some of them are for free on hunsg ;)
I know (im not new to poker, just brand new a curious about the format, which are actually hypers HU not spins thnkgod) I was just wondering how much the EV line can be taken into account in those games, unfortunately im no math wizard but in my head that are just way to many factors that affect the EV line for it to be really usefull in such games.
About the coffe math pack i might get it soon, just got the zztilt and the crushing fish pack =)
I am under a lot of medication at the moment so i hope i made sense.
the ev line is the best measure of your ability to beat these games
in your J7s example, yes when called it is likely to be by a better hand and so on thos occassions your ev line will go down some amount. however every time you get a fold it will go up as whenever villain folds it is added to your ev, longterm it is likely to be a +ev shove.
as a side note i wouldnt put too much emphasis on NASH.
Above 6bb it is a losing proposition for the SB and it gets worse the deeper you go.
build your own ranges, but remember that minraising and limping are often much better options above 6bb.
That line is called "All-in Equity", i thought it meant when both players were all in.
So if i bluff shove a river and villain folds it computes as +EV? Dosent make that much sense to me.
How does the program recognizes what is an +EV shove if no ranges are set?
"So if i bluff shove a river and villain folds it computes as +EV? "
yes, any time villain folds your ev line goes up by the amount you won, and when you fold it goes down by the amount you lose.
when the money all goes in before the river it will go up or down according to how much equity you have against villains hand. range doesnt matter, it's your hand v villains hand.
Jesus im probably REALLY dumb.