Ok so, i don't understand the EV line in pt4 at all, i get it in behind a bunch of times when villan is short, but mathematically i still have to shove those hands. Most of my games villain has half hes stack by second lvl blinds then im just shoving nash there most of the time and again most of the time i get called is by a better hand since they call fairly tight.
Just please keep in mind im not here trying to justify anything, my ev line is less then 1% ROI below my actual net.
Can you please give me some insight on this? i found very little info on the metter.
a couple of points
1) it sounds like you may be shoving nash a little too early ( most players don't shove solely nash until 8bb effective and some don't shove nash until later)
2) for a lot of those hands that you're shoving, you will be behind when called. However, you need to look at the value you get from your fold equity. So look at the "non show down earnings" + "ev when called" to get a feel for whether it is a good shove or not
Keep thinking about the game, not being happy with success is a great way to get better.
Solid advice, thanks.
Still, ive seen some 100k games graphs with regs running at double their ev, so i have to guess it also has a lot to do with card distribution right?
"not being happy with success is a great way to get better." quotable stuff here! (unless its already a quote lol).
Speaking of quotes, i really like this one
There will always be volatility with your EV line but all things being equal, over any 2k tournament stretch, it's a pretty strong indicator as to where you are at
I ran at 7-11% (around that, not sure but it was really high) EV roi in my first 1.5k hypers ,i had no idea what i was doing, so based on a 2k strech i could assume i was a poker angel sent from heaven.
I also ran breakeven EV for about the same sample, what i mean is that 2k games EV dont seem to show me much of anything.
Assuming your "true" ev roi is 3% (and nobody really knows what their true ev roi is), there's almost no chance statistically that you can achieve 7-11% over 1500 tournaments - however, you could achieve something like 5% ev roi 1 in 200 simulations when your true ev roi is 1%
Break even over 1500 games is rare but absolutely possible if you have an ev roi of 3% ie it statistically would occur approx 5% of the time.
My guess is your current style and strategy is giving you a real ev of 1ish% and you ran really well in that first stretch of games.