Thought process:
T8o in position @ 24BB => middling offsuit connected hand, will play well in position => min raise
Flop comes 943 r => doesn't hit much of villain's OOP flatting range => cbet, expecting to take down the pot most of the time
Villain flats, I expect his flatting range here will be largely weighted to 4x, 3x. Although I expect him to be c/r his top pair most of the time, I do not rule 9x out of his c/c range here given how dry the board is and villain would not be too worried about draws given the connectiveness is to low cards and the board is rainbow.
I bink a T on the turn which I happily bet for value vs villain's perceived flop c/c and check to me on turn range.
When he c/c again I expect his range to remain largely the same from his flop c/c range except that he will probably fold out his 3x and sometimes his 4x that didn't pick up a FD on the turn.
The river comes a 4.
If checked to, I think it is probably too thin to bet for value here.
When villain donks river I expect he often has a 4 because he would c/f or c/c his:
- 3x, 9x
But it feels pretty nitty to fold top pair to such a small bet.
Was this was a mistake?
I can imagine if villain floats this board with enough high card stuff then picks up a FD on the turn, he could have a river donking bluff range from his missed draws?
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$6.85+$0.15
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| SB | Hero | 530 | |
| BB | fragaLY | 470 |
Effective Stacks: 24bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is SB
Hero raises to 40, fragaLY calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
fragaLY checks, Hero bets 40, fragaLY calls 40
Turn (160, 2 players)
fragaLY checks, Hero bets 80, fragaLY calls 80
River (320, 2 players)
fragaLY bets 100, Hero folds
Final Pot: 320
fragaLY wins 420 ( won +160 )
Hero lost -160
from my experience such a small bet in that situation is heavily weighted towards value. many fish at that level would rather spazz out on the river and overshove bluff here. i think the fold is fine. i would probably fold as well, because i see myself having an edge on such players that will come to light soon enough. from what i´ve seem from you so far, i bet you should be having an edge as well and shouldn´t be afraid of giving up marginal spots.
cheers
s.
Really easy snapcall.
You only have to be good 1 in 5 times, you have toppair, all draws missed.
If you fold in this spots you are really way to nitty!
And if checked to I really don't see why you don't want to valuebet here...
the question is: are you good 1 out of 5 times? i strongly doubt that. the standard fish at 7$ chases draws for two streets and when he misses, check folds. it´s very rare that a micro fish donk bluffs a missed draw on the river. i´d say that hardly ever happens. at least not often enough to clearly justify a call. it´d be very borderline. does the standard fish check fold a missed draw at least 4 out of 5 times on the river? yes, by far. that´s why they are so profitable. in my experience they almost always show up with something like A4o, K4o, or complete trash like 42o, etc. maybe you experienced differently, i don´t know that.
it seems very nitty to fold here, that´s right, but it can´t be a big mistake at the 7$ level.
cheers
s.
This riverbet is strong, for sure. He calls turnbet and leads out, alarmbells should be ringing. But is this a fold? I do not think so. In my database on the 3,5 dollar I have 31 hands that follow the exact same pattern. C-bet, c-turn and donkbet river. Out of this 31 hands I still made money (1850 chips). I folded 11 hands, called 18, re-raised 2. The two re-raises where good, he folded his two block or light valuebets. There are a lot of made hands in his range, straights and sets mostly, but there are also a lot of weak pairs in his range and mist draws. This percentage in my database is way above the 20%. The quarter donkbet on the river is interesting, because it can work as valuebet, a blockbet and a bet that tries to get folds. It looks superstrong and most opponent will fold there weak pairs because of this bet. If you think your opponent is weak but you also know that you can not call a potsized of halfpotsized bet it is a very interesting option.
I posted two hands out of mine database with the same structure and where hero improves on the turncard.
First hand: a missed draw, opponent is going for a fold on the river.
LVT
thanks for sharing your statistics. the hands you posted only compare partially to the hand in question here as i see it, because the boards start out differently and develop differently.
the first hand you posted has way more draws on the board, plus: the river is a complete blank that doesn´t hit villain´s range at all (except a backdoored flush which shouldn´t concern us)
the second hand doesn´t really have a river either that changes the board in villain´s favour (except stubborn 78, or 93, 92 kind of hands)
both of the hands have one important thing in common: if you were ahead on the turn, you most likely still are ahead on the river. and the hands we were behind of on the turn should have raised us on the flop or turn because of the draws out there.
the 4 on the river in this hand though improves villain´s flop and turn calling range significantly. he has quite some 4x in his range, which is why i would not value bet that river if checked to, because there hardly aren´t any worse hands that could call me here.
note that this very hand here is also a far better spot for villain to bluff, because he can credibly rep the 4. (call second pair OTF and call it again on the turn is pretty common place).
in the first hand villain is repping a flopped straight or a backdoored flush, both rather unlikely. in the second hand villain´s repping a flopped straight, backdoored straight or rivered two pair (92 or 93 will already have a hard time calling the turn).
but mostly they are repping missed draws played passively, because they missed to raise us at some point prior to the river.
cheers
s.
Value betting if checked to is extremely thin because there is not much to get value from on the river:
- we expect he will often c/r his top pair 9x on the flop
- we expect he will c/c his 4x and 3x, of which there is more 4x in his preflop OOP flatting range because he will be folding more of his 3x to a min raise
- we expect he will not call down 3 streets with just high card value (eg. Ax, Kx)
- as you said, the limited number of draws out there missed, so they're not calling a bet
=> hence if checked to we are betting to get value from primarily 3x => probably too thin to expect him to call 3 streets with 3x and we have to fold to a c/r (not that we are too worried about being c/r bluffed on the river by these guys)
When he leads the river here, the only bluffs we might put in his range that would have c/c 2 streets are:
- passively played OESD 65
- passively played gutshots 76, A2
- overcards on the flop which picked up equity on the turn QJ, KQ
I know its a tiny bet, which is why I found it a tough decision.
Villain bets 100 into 320, laying me odds of 100 / (100+100+320) = 19%
I don't think it's a simple as "I have top pair and all the draws missed" when the draws weren't a big part of villain's range.
+ Why would he bet so small with his missed draws as a bluff? => to me this looks more like a sizing that wants a call than a bluff
=> Despite the pot odds, funnily I think I would be more inclined to call a donk jam here than a bet of this size (but would still fold given the action and the board run out)
As you correctly say, I only need to be good here about 1/5 times.
I'm not sure that villain gets to the river with enough bluffs that hes actually bluffing that much.
+ A lot of the player pool @ $7 level tend to default to passive play (eg. check-fold with missed draws)