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szrfph's picture
Sanity test on some basic math (Coffee's math series pt2)

So I was calculating the fold equity required to make a pure 3bet bluff (preflop) profitable. (Following on from the coffeeyay maths vids ). I could do with a sanity test on my results.https://dl.dropbox.com/u/1976943/whut_fux.pngI'm surprised by how much fold equity is needed for a pure bluff to be possible. It's much higher than I would have intuited it to be.
 
The bluffing assuming we have 25% equity results are blatantly wrong. But I can't figure out why. (Hurr durr algebra.)
 
So if the required fold equity is  f = (S - B - 2 S E)/ (P - 2 S E + S - B)
 
Where:
S = effective stack
B = Bet
E = equity when called
P = pot
Then for a 3bet shove over a minraise and assuming we have 25% equity when called:
 
B = S-1
E = 0.25
P = 3
 
And f is reduced to
 
f = (1 - 0.5 * S)/(4 - 0.5*S)
 
Which returns those blatantly wrong results I got above.
 
How am I failing so badly at algebra? :(((

batman's picture
I'm not sure about your math

I'm not sure about your math but a while back I looked in my database and found out that at my best 3bet bluff sizing (which was 100 chips at 10/20 level on stars) I was getting ~45% folds which resulted in my LOSING 17 chips from start of hand with my bluff range.
However, I am actually up overall with only my bluff 3bet range because post flop the players I play against are very fit or fold in 3bet pots and a cbet takes it away most times.

szrfph's picture
asdfasdfasdf I figured out my

asdfasdfasdf I figured out my error. I dropped a - sign. Getting algebra wrong due to missing signs is probably more irritating than the clap. Now my numbers seem a lot more in line with what I would expect! :)

batman's picture
Pretty sure I'd rather f up

Pretty sure I'd rather f up my algebra...

szrfph's picture
There is nothing on earth

There is nothing on earth that tilts me more than failing at basic algebra. Sitting for 30 minutes in front of a sheet of paper. Totally stuck. Because I can't do some basic bookkeeping. I could stomp on a stoat after fucking up an algebra question.(I swear that i'm usually quite chilled)

coffeeyay's picture
Hiya,    Sorry I missed this.

Hiya, 
 
Sorry I missed this. I've been super busy wrapping up school for the semester. But, glad to see you figured it out!
 
For future reference, I recommend using wolfram alpha whenever you have an issue like this--http://www.wolframalpha.com/. It's great because you just put in your algebra and wolfram will do all the solving for you which lets you avoid headaches and tilt :D
 
Cheers!