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QJo hand is fine, folding Q9o pre. If some of his 3bets were jams I'd like a limp pre, otherwise raise/call seems fine. Have to call flop.Definitely just jam turn with the JJ. All draws missed so he's going to have a really hard time folding his pairs, and when he has draws, you're just giving him a fantastic price to hit them when there's no need for that.

Flop decision depends a ton on his c-betting frequency. In general, it's going to be a check/raise, but if he isn't c-betting very often, leading can be best. On the river, against a calling station who we haven't seen bluff much, I probably just go all-in. We get value from worse 8x/pocket pairs/2x/3x that hero and don't often have the worst hand.

I think you're too deep to have good enough equity against his calling range. There's a lot of hands you're completely crushed against and it's even worse if he's loose and snapping off with 67 without a thought and you have 24% equity. Especially considering most people don't c-bet this type of flop as often as they would other flops. Seems like pretty clearly a -EV play this deep. I'd even rather fold flop than jam.

Mers in the QJ hand when you say you are folding Q9o pre, I'm confused.  Do you really mean that since he seems to have picked up his 3 betting A ton that you are going to tighten up that much?  Q9o pre being your cutoff?  Or do you mean you're folding Q9o pre to a 3 bet, in which case you'll flat the 3 bet w Q10o?   In the A8 hand if we don't end up jamming and played as is, shouldn't we fold?  in general passive call stations don't cr buff river, or check shove hands that they've just been ccing w on the otf and ott.  

I'd be folding Q9o to a potsized 3bet at this stack depth was what I meant. I think I'd call QTo.I think the A8 river decision as played is close and not that big of a deal, it depends on the nuances of the rest of the game. You're right that it's a fold against some.

It's going to be -EV.Estimate a calling range. Calculate your equity against that calling range.Figure out what percentage of the time you get a fold.(how much you win when he folds)*(percentage of times he folds) + (how much you lose when he calls)*(how often he calls)

Try it and I'll help you with the math :)

I have a few minutes. Here's a quick demo.Let's say he calls with 33+,A4s+,KJs+,QJs,A7o+,KQo. That's 16.6% of hands.It's important to realize that having a king in our hand changes his hand range. To do the calculation correctly, you need to run it through a program like StoxEV that takes into account card removal with respect to the following question: What percentage of the time do you get called if you jam?We could do 16.6/60 for 27.7%, but that's going to be off a bit for that reason. However, this gives us a general idea, and it's good enough for our purposes.We have 32.3% equity against this range. So, on average, we'll end up with .323*54bb = 17.4bb stack whenever we're called. That's losing 9.6bb from the start of the hand [27 - 9.6 = 17.4]. So 27.7% of the time, we lose 9.6bb.The other 72.3% of the time, we win t115 from the start of the hand, or +2.3bb [If he folds to a shove, we'll have a 29.3bb stack].So, 27.7% of the time -9.6bb72.3% of the time +2.3bb(.277)(-9.6) + (.723)(2.3)-2.66 + 1.66= -1bbSo our expectation from the start of the hand is losing 1bb when we make this play. That's actually the exact same expectation from folding. So based on these numbers, those two options are equivalent.A couple things to think about, though:1. I didn't include KJo or KTo/KTs in my range. The more Kx you include the worse it gets.2. You need to be very careful to make sure your opponent isn't just raising 60% in general, but rather 60% <30bb deep. A lot of people will have an overall raising range of 60% but not be raising that frequently this short.

Some tweaks:If we include KJo and KTs then your expectation is -1.3bb which is a lot worse than -1bb from folding.If our opponent was minraising and we include KJo/KTs, your expectation would be -1.5bb. The fact that he's raising 2.3x helps the shove for sure.One additional note:Jamming needs to be better than all other options, not just folding. Against a 60% 2.3xer 27bb deep, I think the option with the best expectation is CALLING with K5o. So when we determine whether 3bet shoving is better than folding, we also have to make an estimation about whether it's better than calling, as well. A lot of people get deceived thinking it's best to jam hands like T9s really deep when they compare shoving vs. folding, but that completely forgets that we have really good expectation when calling.

"so HOW u calculate expectation of CALLING?  u make it without math?"yep, this is the hardest thing about it - you can't calculate the expectation of calling with any precision. All you can do is guess at it. I also can look at my historical expectation but even with 20k games it hard to build up too big of a sample size and that's only the expectation against everybody, not against the individual villain you're playing against. This is a table that shows about how wide the villain has to be opening the button for jamming to be better than folding (-1bb), and for jamming to have positive expectation in the overall hand. When we flat with A3o OOP, we have an expectation somewhere in between those two. So these numbers serve as general guideposts.Some hands, like T9s, have very good expectation OOP, closer to 0EV.

blue numbers show shoving is better than folding, and green numbers show shoving is +EV. AKA the blue numbers aren't profitable per se, we just lose less than what we would if we folded yeh? also, "When we flat with A3o OOP, we have an expectation somewhere in between those two. So these numbers serve as general guideposts." how do we know flatting with A3o gives us an expectation in between the two? for example, at 15BBs if villain raises 38% then shoving will loss less than folding, let's say an expectation of X. if villain raises 57% then shoving will be +EV, let's say an expectation of Y. you're saying that flatting A3o will give us an expectation between X and Y? Obviously it's incredibly tough to try and calculate the expectation from flatting a hand so was just wondering how you arrived at this conclusion. Flatting some hands will result in a higher expectation that shoving them, so how do we know when flatting a hand will be between the two 'guideposts'? Or is it just a common sense thing that if shoving is preferable to folding but still losses us money, flatting will generally have an even better expectation? God now im confusing myself cause I don't think I'm taking into account open frequencies.tbh you probably addressed all this in the video I have saved on my hard drive :p I'll rewatch it

"blue numbers show shoving is better than folding, and green numbers show shoving is +EV. AKA the blue numbers aren't profitable per se, we just lose less than what we would if we folded yeh?"Basically. Green numbers show when shoving has positive expectation in the entire hand. That's a pretty high requirement. The breakeven point when compared vs calling will generally be somewhere between those two numbers for close decisions. 10bb deep the expectation from jamming is way better than 0EV vs most people. 50bb deep it's better to fold than it is to jam because jamming is really bad. You get the idea.

ok yeh so it's a common sense thing that i was over complicating haha. basically if i know a hand is more profitable to shove than to fold but im not in love with a shove, then i can assume that flatting will be close/better. because obv if option A sucks and option B sucks it seems reasonable to go with option C. and similarly if i know shoving is better than folding AND i am super happy to shove, it seems unlikely flatting would be better. because if it was i wouldn't automatically be fist pump shipping. obviously it's hard to play mathematically correctly 100% of the time and know the true expectations of shoving and folding off by heart, so my assumption that flatting/shoving is best will sometimes be wrong, often it will be close, but the general rule still applies. and when reviewing my play i should keep a look out for these incorrect assumptions/plays i am making, for example "oh look at 30BBs i am flatting A3s vs a 68% button raiser, i didn't think shoving was great vs that open range but i was wrong, it's likely got a higher expectation than flatting after all." i just made that example up on the spot, but i'm on the right track yes? am i right in assuming that should villain's pfr% be greater than the number in green, ie, if 3b shoving is even more +EV, it's very unlikely flatting will ever be superior? (aka is there a negative correlation between ev of 3b shoving and ev of flatting)are there examples of hands that are very clearly +EV to shove but may actually be better flatted? probably is villain specific and depends on post flop behaviour, but maybe trapping and flatting with QQ+ or something?

Yep, you are definitely on the right track.I wouldn't say there's a negative correlation between the EV of 3bet shoving and the EV of flatting - for Ax, as you increase the kicker, both will go up. It's just unlikely to have better EV than 0 OOP with these marginal hands you're not sure about.The only examples of hands that are clearly +EV to shove but may actually better to flat are indeed premium pairs. Sometimes KQ can have really good expectation flatting but in general that also has better expectation making a non-allin 3bet. Same goes for premium pairs though really. I only flat my AA-QQ when I think we're short enough and my opponent is smart enough that a non-allin 3bet would be extremely transperant (and he has a wide opening range still).

Ugh. Nice EV graph, frustrating to be breakeven.I would really just remind yourself that these situations are a test to see what kind of poker player you can be. They are inevitable, and you'll have much worse luck runs in your future. Take it as a challenge to be a good enough poker player to handle it, push through, and put in good volume. It is an essential skill of a player, just like learning to raise the button or continuation bet. Some people never get past it and cost themselves heaps of money because of it. Actively work on developing that skill.

Close flop spot. After we bet 195, we need 36.6% on the flop. I think we probably have that, given the amount of T9/KT that he can have, and the fact that even against Q9 itself, we actually have the correct odds to call, as our percentage is 36.9% there. Given that, I think bet/calling this flop is best, especially against a big fish who can do some weird things.

Fantastic red line - you should be proud of that.Good luck in June!!!