-What type of sample size is considered large enough to cancel out variance in the HUST on FTP?-Is a realistic long term ROI for a winning player in the 2-4% range?-is the red ev line in HEM a reliable indicator of winning play? I have had several downswings where my redline remains break even or trends upward while my results are a steady down trend. I find the red EV line in cash games to be unreliable but a good general indicator.-I am a breakeven / slight winner but due to personal issues had to cash out. I will be redepositing soon to start at the $20 HUST level. I think $500 is a solid starting bankroll and I would be willing to deposit an additional $250 as necc. anyone care to share their BR strategy?-I have noticed that all players from the $10-$250 range just open shove most of their premium hands or 3b AI over my 2x. I play 30/20-60/40 with a 10% 3b and this doesn't seem to affect whether or not they do it. Is this really optimal? I find it high variance and I'd say I end up flipping in more than 50% of my matches. I'd say I get my money in good about 3/10 times, flip 5/10 and get in behind 2/10. Are such small edges enough?-is getting a PP in vs broadways as a 55% favorite optimal against solid opponents? Do we need to push the 5% edges in these?-what has your worst downswing / upswing been so far? Thanks guys.
I'm keen on STs but I'm only at $5 level (started at $1)HEM doesn't pick up EV line in STs for me :( but it will in any other game which is kind of annoying.Main point I want to address is your reluctance to want to 'flip' as a 55% favourite. Imagine equal stacks at $50+1 level. A 55% flip would, on avg win you $55, thats more than a 7.8% ROI. I'd say thats optimal vs anyone, let alone just solid opponents.
Hi,I've been giving STs a try lately and am quite interested in the subject, so I'll give you my views:- You need 1-2K games before you can even start making any kind of reasonable analisis on your results (Of course 200 games with a 7% roi are a decent indicator that you're probably a winner, but with that kind of sample size your true roi can be like +-10% from whatever it is). For variance to really even out it's gotta be a crazy number, I'd say maybe 10K games should start to be decently well balanced.- 2-4% is a fairly well agreed upon roi. I strongly believe at least 5% and maybe more is doable for sure up to the 50s long term, but at the 100s`+ I imagine 2-4 should be it.- Redline is, at least, a better indicator than actual results. But still it doesn't account for a ton of ways in which variance comes in: hole card distribution, flop distribution, coolers for/against you...- 500 is nowhere near enough to play 20$ STs. A lot of people recommend 100BIs for these games, and you can use a more aggressive strategy if you feel comfortable with it, but 25BIs is a bad idea imo, you can very easily win or lose 10-15BIs in 2 hours just by running good or bad. If you're gonna deposit 500 start maybe with the 10$s, and still keep in mind that swings can be big.- Openshoving or always 3bet-shoving your premiums is not optimal at all, but not because it's high variance, just because there are more +ev ways to play them. You should only worry about the ev of the play, no sense in trying to reduce variance in these, it's gonna be huge no matter what. The good part is you can play a ton of games very quickly. Just to give you an example, in the situation you're describing, assuming getting it in good means 75-25, your winrate would be: W= 0,5*50%+0,3*75%*0,2*25%=52,5% which is a winning roi, though small one. If you make the assumptions a tiny bit more favourable it'll turn into a bigger roi very quickly.- 5% edges have to be pushed for sure.- I've won 30BIs and lost 20 in a couple of days.There are some amazingly good ST videos in this site. Nothing would be more +ev than watching them to start off imo.Hope it goes well for you!
hey guysI have over 1k games logged at the $20 level. my roi is around 7-9% and I know this is not sustainable, but I am very comfortable with the 500-750 figure. The largest swings Ive experienced were -10 BI and never more than 15. I win around 55% and it's hard to lose that many in a row. But I probably just haven't played many games. From reading around, I've def picked up on people saying 100+ BI so I am def. suprised. I guess positive variance could be fooling me. As for the bit about the players auto felting all of their value range pf over my minbets, I know it's not theoretically optimal, but I see winning players do it all the way up to the $200+ level. I've played about 1500 of these total at the $20+ level FWIW
hey guysI have over 1k games logged at the $20 level. my roi is around 7-9% and I know this is not sustainable, but I am very comfortable with the 500-750 figure. The largest swings Ive experienced were -10 BI and never more than 15. I win around 55% and it's hard to lose that many in a row. But I probably just haven't played many games. From reading around, I've def picked up on people saying 100+ BI so I am def. suprised. I guess positive variance could be fooling me. As for the bit about the players auto felting all of their value range pf over my minbets, I know it's not theoretically optimal, but I see winning players do it all the way up to the $200+ level. I've played about 1500 of these total at the $20+ level FWIW
I wouldnt base anything off of 1000 games in ST. The only thing you could guess off of your 1000 games is that there is a good chance you are a break even or better player.
Good replies in this thread so far.One thing about using 100 buyins, is that it isn't necessary for most.Why? Because most players will play another game and quit super turbos before they reach a 100 buyin downswing.If you're fully prepared to work hard, ride out any variance (and can handle the variance), having a lot of buyins in your account for these is a good idea. But if you're going to quit if you lose 25 buyins in the first 1k games, you should base your bankroll strategy on what will happen if you lose those 25 buyins (IE, will it impact your ability to play your 2nd choice of games?).For pros that plan to ride out swings and continue to progress and improve their game, having 75+ buyins for these games can make sense starting out.