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hejhopp's picture
Variance or am i a total fish?

This is my graph this month at $10 and $20, and i hope it is variance.

http://i53.tinypic.com/ms0rp0.jpg

By the look of every game ive lost i just feel sick, and its making me not putting in enough volume because i feel like i suck and can only lose.

Here are the hands ive lost/got crippled with in the last two days just for an example.

No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

BBatgman691545
BTNHero1455

Effective Stacks: 49bb
Blinds 15/30 Pre-Flop (45, 2 players)
Hero is BTN

Hero raises to 60, atgman69 goes all-in 1545, Hero calls 1395

Flop (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 3000
atgman69 shows

Hero shows

atgman69 wins 3000 ( won +1455 )
Hero lost -1455

No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

BBs04meister2057
BTNHero943

Effective Stacks: 9bb
Blinds 50/100 Pre-Flop (150, 2 players)
Hero is BTN

Hero goes all-in 943, s04meister calls 843

Flop (1886, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn (1886, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River (1886, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 1886
s04meister shows

Hero shows

s04meister wins 1886 ( won +943 )
Hero lost -943

No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

BBxwingchung1700
BTNHero1300

Effective Stacks: 65bb
Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is BTN

Hero raises to 60, xwingchung calls 40

Flop (120, 2 players)

xwingchung checks, Hero bets 80, xwingchung raises to 160, Hero goes all-in 1240, xwingchung calls 1080

Turn (2600, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River (2600, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 2600
xwingchung shows

Hero shows

xwingchung wins 2600 ( won +1300 )
Hero lost -1300

No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

BBdevil2k1010
BTNHero1990

Effective Stacks: 10bb
Blinds 50/100 Pre-Flop (150, 2 players)
Hero is BTN

Hero goes all-in 1990, devil2k calls 910

Flop (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 3000
devil2k shows

Hero shows

devil2k wins 2020 ( won +1010 )
Hero lost -1010

Two in a row
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

BTNdevil2k2020
BBHero980

Effective Stacks: 10bb
Blinds 50/100 Pre-Flop (150, 2 players)
Hero is BB

devil2k calls 50, Hero goes all-in 980, devil2k calls 880

Flop (1960, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn (1960, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River (1960, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 1960
devil2k shows

Hero shows

devil2k wins 1960 ( won +980 )
Hero lost -980

No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

BBHero1360
BTNarnes_011640

Effective Stacks: 68bb
Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is BB

arnes_01 raises to 40, Hero raises to 120, arnes_01 goes all-in 1640, Hero calls 1240

Flop (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 3000
Hero shows

arnes_01 shows

arnes_01 wins 3000 ( won +1360 )
Hero lost -1360

No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

BBHero1610
BTN3dex11la1390

Effective Stacks: 14bb
Blinds 50/100 Pre-Flop (150, 2 players)
Hero is BB

3dex11la raises to 200, Hero goes all-in 1610, 3dex11la calls 1190

Flop (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 3000
Hero shows

3dex11la shows

3dex11la wins 2780 ( won +1390 )
Hero lost -1390

No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

BBma1242480
BTNHero520

Effective Stacks: 10bb
Blinds 25/50 Pre-Flop (75, 2 players)
Hero is BTN

Hero goes all-in 520, ma124 calls 470

Flop (1040, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn (1040, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River (1040, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 1040
ma124 shows

Hero shows

ma124 wins 1040 ( won +520 )
Hero lost -520

No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

BBHero1390
BTNdima4poker1610

Effective Stacks: 70bb
Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is BB

dima4poker calls 10, Hero raises to 80, dima4poker calls 60

Flop (160, 2 players)

Hero bets 110, dima4poker calls 110

Turn (380, 2 players)

Hero checks, dima4poker bets 20, Hero raises to 290, dima4poker calls 270

River (960, 2 players)

Hero bets 910, dima4poker calls 910

Final Pot: 2780
Hero shows

dima4poker shows

dima4poker wins 2780 ( won +1390 )
Hero lost -1390

No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

BBdima4poker945
BTNHero2055

Effective Stacks: 9bb
Blinds 50/100 Pre-Flop (150, 2 players)
Hero is BTN

Hero goes all-in 2055, dima4poker calls 845

Flop (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 3000
dima4poker shows

Hero shows

dima4poker wins 1890 ( won +945 )
Hero lost -945
Two in a row
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

BBdima4poker1990
BTNHero1010

Effective Stacks: 10bb
Blinds 50/100 Pre-Flop (150, 2 players)
Hero is BTN

Hero goes all-in 1010, dima4poker calls 910

Flop (2020, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn (2020, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River (2020, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 2020
dima4poker shows

Hero shows

dima4poker wins 2020 ( won +1010 )
Hero lost -1010
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

BTNHero3050
BBspeom1950

Effective Stacks: 39bb
Blinds 25/50 Pre-Flop (75, 2 players)
Hero is BTN

Hero raises to 100, speom calls 50

Flop (200, 2 players)

speom checks, Hero bets 110, speom calls 110

Turn (420, 2 players)

speom checks, Hero bets 280, speom raises to 1260, Hero raises to 2240, speom calls 480

River (4400, 2 players)

Final Pot: 4400
Hero shows

speom shows

speom wins 3900 ( won +1950 )
Hero lost -1950

No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

BTNHero2525
BBspeom2475

Effective Stacks: 25bb
Blinds 50/100 Pre-Flop (150, 2 players)
Hero is BTN

Hero raises to 200, speom raises to 600, Hero goes all-in 2525, speom calls 1875

Flop (5000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn (5000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River (5000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 5000
Hero shows

speom shows

speom wins 4950 ( won +2475 )
Hero lost -2475
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

BBHero1755
BTNgitans141245

Effective Stacks: 42bb
Blinds 15/30 Pre-Flop (45, 2 players)
Hero is BB

gitans14 calls 15, Hero checks

Flop (60, 2 players)

Hero checks, gitans14 checks

Turn (60, 2 players)

Hero checks, gitans14 bets 90, Hero raises to 330, gitans14 goes all-in 1215, Hero calls 885

River (2490, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 2490
Hero shows

gitans14 shows

gitans14 wins 2490 ( won +1245 )
Hero lost -1245

No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

BTNruch676601410
BBHero1590

Effective Stacks: 9bb
Blinds 75/150 Pre-Flop (225, 2 players)
Hero is BB

ruch67660 calls 75, Hero checks

Flop (300, 2 players)

Hero checks, ruch67660 bets 150, Hero goes all-in 1440, ruch67660 calls 1110

Turn (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River (3000, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 3000
ruch67660 shows

Hero shows

ruch67660 wins 2820 ( won +1410 )
Hero lost -1410

Most of my games where i lost it was against sportbetters or something that tried there luck in poker (no im not a bumhunter but its weird, most of my games i lose are against these people)

Is this standard for everyone? How do i deal with it? My whole month has been like this, it disaper and i win a few games, then boom its there again.

jackoneill's picture
Just had a quick look at some

Just had a quick look at some of these hands (am very tired at the moment, after playing for 5+ hours straight), all these endgame spots look totally standard to me, you just had some bad look regarding flips.In all these hands like JJ vs AK or AT vs KJ etc., your opponent has a lot of equity against you, so you're expected to lose these a decent amount.  Here, you have to think in ranges; it's completely standard to ship a hand as strong as AT for less than 15 BB - and if you run into some small PP and lose the flip, that's just variance.And there were also some coolers; that hand where you had AK and turned trips - well, I would have bet that turn since I don't want to give him a free card to his flush or straight - the result would have been the same.However, there are also some hands where I don't quite agree with your play:That 88 hand where you minraise and get shoved on - did you have any history with the guy before ?  Is that on Full Tilt, where the match starts at 15/30 ... ?   Can't tell much about that, since I don't play on FT.And that AQ hand, a check/minraise is often the "fish value line" and all you have is one pair - you basically turn your hand into a bluff by shoving over that, praying that me might call you with something like a combo draw (which has decent equity against your hand), or a weaker Queen.  I would just flat and reevaluate turn.  That way, you also keep weaker hands in the pot.  The way you play it, he may even consider folding something like Q9. 


hejhopp's picture
Thanks for your great

Thanks for your great reply.

I cant remember exactly why i didnt bet the turn, because im 100% doing it against almost everyone else and this is not my standard line.

I think it was because he often folded to two barrels but stabbing large at the turns when checked to.

That 88 hand was right after a pot where he raised to 90 pf, bet 30 on a ATssJ board, and checked Ks turn and check folded blank river.

The raise to 90 pf made me think he had a some what strong hand that he had to lay down, and that it was a tilt push.

The blinds start at 10/20 and goes up after 7 min.

He had also made some very weird plays earlier and i think he was a losing player .

On that AQ hand, yep you are right will put that in my mind.

Is there anything to do against these kinds of things? it sucks being almost BE this month and tonight i considered starting playing turbos to get some volume in, my winrate will go down and more variance i know, but it feels like it couldnt get worse :)

Ah well now im whining lol, i guess i just have to rub it off and dont let it affect me?