Hi ,
I'm planning on switching to HU hypers and would like to know the winrate that is possible in this format .
I know it would vary from player to player , so to be more specific ,
1. What % ROI is needed to beat these games after rake ? ( for 7$ , 15$ , 30$ and 60$s )
2. What is the max. possible ROI that can be possible and what ROI do normal decent regs have ( for 7$ , 15$ , 30$ and 60$s ) ?
3. How do I calculate, how much I can make/month if I'm able to beat a certain stake at a x% ROI after x.no. of game?
eg : If I can win at 15$ with 4% ROI after 2.5k games in a month , how much profit would I be making pre rake back for that month?
(I know it's a noob question , but I'm really bad with math and would like to know how 2 calculate this.)
4. How many games do I have to play to determine my actual ROI in HU Hypers?
I would really appreciate it if you would take the time to answer these questions in detail . I'm a DON sng player who plays till 20$ games making 1-2k$/month and am planning to move to hypers because it's not possible to make more than 2k$/month in DONs at the format is pretty dead these days .
Thanks in advance.
1. The rake on the pokerstars is a bit more than 2%. So every 50 games you lose 1Bi because of the rake. That means you have to win 51 games from 100 to be breakeven.
2. I think the good regs do 4% on the 30s and a bit less on higher.
3. That's really simple. If you have 4% Roi than that means you win 15x0.04 dollar in each game. That's 0.60 dollar/game X2500= 1500
4. Good question.
@karcsibohoc
You need to be very carefull with such 'simple' math, that seems reasonable. Have you ever done the math for "answer 1"? I think not.
For the sake of keeping it simple let asume that the BI is $10 and the rake is exactly 2% ($0.20). The price pool is your BI and the BI from your opponent: 9.80 x 2 = $19.60.
You play 100 games = -$10 * 100 = -1'000.-
You win the price pool 51 times: 51 * 19.60 = 999.60
You end up with a net loss of -0.40.
Your mistake has (probably) been your asumption that you would win $10 from your opponent and the pricepool therefore would had ben $19.80.
51 * 19.80 = $1'009.80
Hi.
Hi GODMODE,
I worked through some of these calcs in a similar thread.
http://www.husng.com/content/roi-and-micros-living
The simple answer to Q4 is infinite.
If you wanted a more robust framework :it would be an application of the central limit theorm applied to a bernoulli probability distribution.
I've modelled it as a bernoulli distribution using a random number generator [0,1] and representing [0,w] = win and [w,1] =loss where w=win rate %.
Even for simulations of 500,000 games there were still some extreme deviations of about +/- 0.5% of observed ROI on a base case expected ROI of around 3% in the scenarios I ran.
Say you are a pro and play 30 hours a week, 48 weeks a year and can play 15 hypers per hour.
You will be playing 15 * 30 * 48 = 21,600 games / year.
It could take you a lifetime to reach a sample size which still has significant deviation from your expected return. Over this time, unless you are a pre-programmed robot playing against other, losing pre-programmed robots your strategies also would have changed and therefore your reference expected ROI would have also deviated over the sample.
In reality it's not going to matter - your expected ROI is not static and you're never physically going to be able to play enough games for your observed ROI to approach your expected ROI anyway.