minute 10.50. Qc3s.
you raise preflop, flop is QsTs4d, you cbet, he reraises, you call, turn is 4c, he shoves. you call.
i'd like you to explain your decision. are you happy with it? to me it looks like a fold.
given pot odds, you need to call 1030 to win 1820. wich means you need to win more than 36.15% of the times to make it profitable.
you say the 4 is a good card, and you hope he has a draw.
and you would chop with Q9, Q8, Q7, Q6, Q5, Q2.
but i see him shoving with a weak queen very rarely, because a queen is the worse hand that would call a shove...
you're basically left with air and a draw (wich still has outs), and it doesn't seem to me you can win this often enough to make it profitable to call.
thanks
If he's on a flush draw, the odds of him hitting are around 27% (we hold one of the flush cards!!)...and less for a straight draw. I agree that he probably wouldn't shove a weak Q.
If he's a guy who plays draws aggressively, I'd get it in as well. I'd put him on a draw, a strong queen, or total air. Given that only a strong Q beats us, and we can't nail it down to this one hand, I think the call is ok. We can discount the 4 since I don't see him reraising with a 4 on the flop.
Of course I don't think on xSCWx's level...so I might be totally off ;)
__________________________
Goats!!! MORE GOATS!!!
Radeh's reply pretty much sums up my thoughts. I definitely wasn't expecting to be in great shape, but I think that a call is better than a fold here.
If I was going to fold to a turn shove then I would have just folded to his flop raise. This turn was about as good as it gets for us. As played, on the turn I think that are we probably winning slightly more than the ~36% we need to call.
Also, at low stakes I wouldn't get it in...monkeys call with any Q, any T, and sometimes even a 4 if they're weird. Incredibly annoying that you can't assume your opponent is thinking at low stakes.
__________________________
Goats!!! MORE GOATS!!!