No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$6 + $0.25 Heads Up Sit & Go Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBliquidH2O1425 BBHero1575 Effective Stacks: 48bb Blinds 15/30 Pre-Flop (45, 2 players) Hero is BB liquidH2O raises to 60, Hero raises to 180, liquidH2O calls 120 Flop (360, 2 players) Hero bets 200, liquidH2O raises to 700, Hero goes all-in 1395, liquidH2O goes all-in 545 Turn (3000, 2 players, 2 all-in) River (3000, 2 players, 2 all-in) Final Pot: 3000 So this is the 10th hand of the match. So far villain has been relatively passive I 3 bet once he folded, he's folded a couple of buttons and called my button raises twice but folded to the cbet, the only hand that's gone to showdown he raised I called, I lead out with mid pair and he called me down with top pair no kicker.In this hand I figured there's a few possibilities, either he's flopped 2 pair or, far less likely, a set of 8s, alternatively he could be on a draw and decided to play it aggressive and also he may just generally be getting a little annoyed with how aggressive i've been (100% cbet at this point) so he could be playing KJ or Q10 this way also, not to mention I have very reasonable fold equity. With all of this in mind since I am a slight favourite vs any flush I decided to ship - as I figured the flush draw was the most likely holding based on the last 10 hands.Is this a reasonable play to make or given i'm at the $6 games would it make more sense to take another line?
Based on your reads and being in this spot often your never far ahead and often way behind. As for other lines:Flatting- Dont have the button so bluff catching the turn doesnt workFolding- The only reason this isnt a clear favorite over shoving is because the board is very wet so draws will make up a portion of his range and the pot is so big. Based on your reads though i think its the best option. You should be able to take enough small pots of him to make up for the lose of this big pot and then someChecking flop to get value on later streets- See lots of players take this line. I dont know how i feel about it but it is a $6 dollar game and lots of good players recomend a more passive line at lower stakes to increase your edge.
I wouldn't mind checking the flop if I had flatted his raise pre but because I re-popped I feel like checking is a kind of weak play and gives him a free card on a very draw heavy board, plus if he flats I have a decent idea where he's at but if I check call I really don't know if he got a piece of the board or not, I think this line also makes a lot of turns very difficult to play.I agree with your passive line in the lower stake games. Since returning i've been playing a lot more aggro and I think this is reflecting in my results as i'm entering into more flips than I used to and it's lowering my ROI. I'll try to adjust my game in the reg speeds :)
I used stoxev to try work this one out. I assigned his preflop calling range to something like this:22-TT, A5s-AJs, ATo-AQo, KJo-KQo, K9s-KQs, Q9s-QJs, J8s-JTs, T9s, 98s since he sounds like a fairly tight guy. If he raises you with QJ, all top pairs or better, all flush draws and all open ended straight draws then it's pretty profitable for you to shove. It gives an EV of 248 chips for shoving. If he raises you only with any top pair or better, flush draws 80% of the time and open ended straight draws 50% of the time then your shove becomes -EV of about 75 chips. If I add QJ back into that second range then he needs to be raising with QJ about 35% of the time for your play to break even. With this hand it's vitally important that at least some of the time you are stacking him with your kicker. Stacking off against top pairs and draws isn't good enough.
I'm not very good so I could be way off on this but...Against a passive opponent, is it really in his range to be calling a 3bet pre and then raising more than 3.5x on the flop into a 2 spade K high board with QJ? The only time I would think a passive would take this line with QJ is if he had the flush draw as well. For a passive I would think the worst hand for him to show up with after flatting the 3bet would be AQ or two pair. Also I could see him doing it on a combo draw to the flush and straight with JTss, ATss, or AJss. The range I have him on for flatting a 3bet then raising the flop as a passive opponent would be: QQ+,AQs+,AsJs,AsTs,KJs+,K8s,AQo+,KJo+,K8o,QsJs. This would give you ~20% equity, and I would think this would be a fairly easy fold against a passive guy showing aggression.Edit: missed a couple hands in that range, but adding them in still gave ~20%
I agree with mr monkeytilt, if you decide to bet, folding is the best option this early in the match. If you call you are committed anyway, and vilain just raised himself committed to the pot. If you shove the best you can dream for is a 55-45 against his range,which is too low in a 6$ game against a tight passive player. you still have 40BB behind if you fold anyway. Just be patient in these spots