This is second hand of the match and don't think this guy is a reg so no reads for now.
Poker Stars $98.12+$1.88 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players
BB: t490 24.50 BBs
Hero (BTN/SB): t510 25.50 BBs
Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with Ah Ac
Hero raises to t40, BB calls t20
Flop: (t80) 3s Qs Qh (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t30, BB calls t30
Turn: (t140) 8s (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t60, BB calls t60
River: (t260) 8c (2 players)
BB bets t360 all in, Hero folds
Final Pot: t260
BB wins t260
I think play up to river is pretty standard with [AA].
Then villain overbets 18.0 BB into 13.0 BB => ergh, lame! :(
You need 18.0 / (13.0 + 18.0 + 18.0) = 37% equity vs his overbet jam range following c/c flop & turn.
Hands that villain could play this way:
You can probably rule out 3x since it wouldn't comprise many players typical OOP flatting range pre flop.
The number of A floats is significantly reduced because you hold [AA].
Most villains would prefer to float rainbow board with K high (if they are going to at all) than the two tone board.
I'd say you're up against a range comprised mostly of Qx, flushes and maybe A3 (rarely) which overbet jammed to push you off a split.
You're defintely not ahead more than 37% of the time readless.
Readless, I wouldn't assume villain is capable of floating two streets and then overbet donk jamming the river as a bluff.
With respect to EV:
This is a spot where, when in the heat of the moment I will often snap call with [AA] but then when thinking about it later I should have found a fold because he can't get to the river and take this action with many hands I'm ahead of.
Well played in my opinion.