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errorpoker's picture
$100 HUSNG on PokerStars - Your thoughts about the max EV play and river play?
This is second hand of the match and don't think this guy is a reg so no reads for now.
 
Poker Stars $98.12+$1.88 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players
 
BB: t490 24.50 BBs
Hero (BTN/SB): t510 25.50 BBs
 
Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with Ah Ac
Hero raises to t40, BB calls t20
 
Flop: (t80) 3s Qs Qh (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t30, BB calls t30
 
Turn: (t140) 8s (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t60, BB calls t60
 
River: (t260) 8c (2 players)
BB bets t360 all in, Hero folds
 
Final Pot: t260
BB wins t260
 
 
cdon3822's picture
Well played

I think play up to river is pretty standard with [AA].
Then villain overbets 18.0 BB into 13.0 BB => ergh, lame! :(
You need 18.0 / (13.0 + 18.0 + 18.0) = 37% equity vs his overbet jam range following c/c flop & turn. 
Hands that villain could play this way:

  • Slowplayed Qx
  • Flush draw on flop that got there on turn and overbet donk jammed river for value
  • A8 or K8 that floated flop, picked up equity on turn then overbet donk jammed river for value
  • AsX or KsX that floated flop, picked up equity on turn with draw then jammed two paired board to fold out split pots on river when draw missed and board double paired
  • 3x that c/c two streets then got counterfeited on river so donk overbet jammed as bluff with no show down value (except for A3 with now has decent show down value)

You can probably rule out 3x since it wouldn't comprise many players typical OOP flatting range pre flop. 
The number of A floats is significantly reduced because you hold [AA].
Most villains would prefer to float rainbow board with K high (if they are going to at all) than the two tone board.
I'd say you're up against a range comprised mostly of Qx, flushes and maybe A3 (rarely) which overbet jammed to push you off a split.
You're defintely not ahead more than 37% of the time readless.
Readless, I wouldn't assume villain is capable of floating two streets and then overbet donk jamming the river as a bluff. 
With respect to EV:

  • You extracted value against worse hands, pre-flop, & flop.
  • You protected against being bluffed on the river if you check back the turn when flush hits by betting.
  • You minimised losses on river when he took a line which readless is going to be an imbalanced range of [value bets/bluffs] which you could not call profitably.

This is a spot where, when in the heat of the moment I will often snap call with [AA] but then when thinking about it later I should have found a fold because he can't get to the river and take this action with many hands I'm ahead of.
Well played in my opinion.