PokerStars Game #26401772458: Tournament #151065210, $22+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level III (25/50) - 2009/03/27 1:06:02 WET [2009/03/26 21:06:02 ET]
Table '151065210 1' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Saitek00 (1620 in chips)
Seat 2: Forza0031 (1380 in chips)
Saitek00: posts small blind 25
Forza0031: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Saitek00 [Tc 4h]
Saitek00: calls 25
Forza0031: checks
*** FLOP *** [Th 5d Kh]
Forza0031: checks
Saitek00: bets 50
Forza0031: calls 50
*** TURN *** [Th 5d Kh] [6c]
Forza0031: checks
Saitek00: bets 100
Forza0031: calls 100
*** RIVER *** [Th 5d Kh 6c] [9s]
Forza0031: bets 1180 and is all-in
Saitek00: ???
Villian seems fairly typical of the $23s not totally awful but not good -5% ROI. Specifically passive, too loose OOP and poor bet sizing. In the run up to this hand I had regained the lead from being 970 in chips 5 hands ago with a few decent hands.
PokerStars Game #26402515458: Tournament #151072184, $22+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level I (10/20) - 2009/03/27 1:29:54 WET [2009/03/26 21:29:54 ET]
Table '151072184 1' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: pokernut077 (1300 in chips)
Seat 2: Saitek00 (1700 in chips)
pokernut077: posts small blind 10
Saitek00: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Saitek00 [5c 5h]
pokernut077: calls 10
Saitek00: raises 60 to 80
pokernut077: calls 60
*** FLOP *** [2s Tc Qd]
Saitek00: checks
pokernut077: checks
*** TURN *** [2s Tc Qd] [Th]
Saitek00: checks
pokernut077: bets 100
Saitek00: calls 100
*** RIVER *** [2s Tc Qd Th] [6s]
Saitek00: checks
pokernut077: bets 400
Saitek00: ??
9th hand not much has happened villian has been limping his buttons and this is the third i've raised, the other two times he folded PF. The only other hand where something happened was me betting top pair on the flop turn and river when it became 2pair and he folded the river.
Hand 1: You need to win this 42.75% of the time to call. He would have to be a complete drooler to be good anywhere near this number so I think this is a fold and a half. Not many people are making huge overbet shoves with weak hands or air in my experience.
Hand 2: This river is basically a blank, so if you are calling the turn you should be doing it with the intention of calling a bet on the river. You need to win this 34.48% of the time to call, and I think that with the way it played out it is very possible for him to have a busted draw or even complete air here. I'd call. I wouldn't be fist pumping or anything though.
Thanks for the reply. For hand 1 what do you put him on? I just cant work out what he was ever value betting here. A King, 2 pair, sets, or straights don't make sense to me. he'd been more inclined to bet very small with strong hands in the match rather than overbet shove.
His line is strange but I wouldnt be terribly shocked to see him show up with 55, 66, 99, TT, KK, QJ, or 78hh. I don't think that this is an optimal line for ANY of these hands, but I do see people take similar lines with all of these hands from time to time, and definitely a lot more often than I see them randomly overbet shoving air.
deleted want some more replies before i post this
Yeah, as xSCWx said, people make huge overbets with strong hands more often then wih complete air. Especially on mid stakes. It looks so bluffy, so villain might call with intention to catch a bluff. And overbet can be profitable.
For example, you have a nuts on river and 300 chips in a pot. If you bet standard 2/3 of pot (200 chips) and expect to get called 50% of time, your EV from this bet will be 100 chips. But if you overbet to 1000 chips, you need to be called only 10% of time to get same EV.
ok 2 out 4 of the main coaches says fold thats good enough for me. I called and he had Qh2h for a busted flush draw. I don't want to be results oriented so i'll have to fold this spot in future. I had to ask because as xSCWx said you have to be right a large percentage of the time in overbet pots. I wanted to make sure i was making the right decision and not being lucky, guess i got lucky this time.
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