So, i'm playing this reg on the 50 and 100's turbo HUSNG on stars a lot, like 50 a day or so.Today I was trying to see where I could exploit him the most and so on in HM.I saw he was going insane at 3bet-shipping in 19-23BB situations, like 33% (about 100 occasions)I open the BTT about 60% of the time and think/thought that's very standard, but as I began to look further his 3bet shoves are extremely +ev.I calculated it like this:Blinds 25/50 (20bb deep)I minr to 100, he shoves for 1050 totalI have to call 950 for a 2100 pot, so i need 45.2% against his range.(so that means that I have to call with every hand that has more then 45.2% against his range right?That leads to this range: A2s+,A5o+,KTo+,JTs+,22+ (22.2% of my range)So of the 60% i'm opening i'm folding 63% of the time and calling 37% of the time(22.2% / 60%)Every time I fold he wins 150 pointsFor every time I call I made the following calculation:my 22.2% range of A2s+,A5o+,KTo+,JTs+,22+ has about 45.4% against his 33% reshoving range (correct to calculate it in this way?!)So every time he loses 45.4%*2100(potsize)=953, he invested 1000 points so 1000-953=47 pointsIf I fold he will win 150 points, If I call he will lose 47 points63% x 15037% x -47======== 77.1 point he wins every time he shoves into me. My questions:1: Is the way I calculated it the right one to play with ranges and adjusting and exploiting etc.?2: In my example villain was BB (50) and he had 1000 points (20bb) behind, are we playing 20bb or 21bb effective?3: If I know villain is excactly 3bet-shoving 33% in this level with excactly 20bb effective, I can always exploit that untill he found out I am exploiting him and then he has to adjust his ranges to that, right? If he doesn't adjust his ranges and keeps 3betting me excactly 33%, there is always a winning move for me right?4: can I ever do something else then calling with the given range because that are the only hands that are ahead of his 33% shoving range. I mean if my callingrange HAS to be 22.2% then the only thing I can do to adjust well is changing my opening-range right?
"1: Is the way I calculated it the right one to play with ranges and adjusting and exploiting etc.?"dont think so -- i think your current strategy should be a winning one, but post the actual ranges you use instead of just %s."3: If I know villain is excactly 3bet-shoving 33% in this level with excactly 20bb effective, I can always exploit that untill he found out I am exploiting him and then he has to adjust his ranges to that, right? If he doesn't adjust his ranges and keeps 3betting me excactly 33%, there is always a winning move for me right?"villain's not flatting any opens? open 100% otb and call shoves w/ {22+,A2s+,K9s+,QJs,A4o+,KTo+}.
Wow I just started a thread about a tool that I found over in 2+2 that is like pokerstove to calculate these situations like Nash.http://www.husng.com/content/cool-tool-nashThe Short Stacking Strategy Calculator says that if the Villain (that's you :) ) is min raising 60% and calling 22% that the BB can push 38.5%. That includes 64s!!! NOTE: one annoying thing about software is that it gives a jam fold chart without giving the percentage. I use Pokerstove to get the % that equals.
Look to see what hands he's shown up with and if you've seen him play any hands (particularly strong ones) differently.Some guys will shove Q2s but not QQ, for instance. Some guys will do something else with JJ, some may fold K8s but shove 98o here. If you've seen a higher % than usual of strong hands and not too many weak hands that would likely show up with a 33% range, then it's likely he's just hit stronger than usual hands and his 3bet % is really much lower.Especially if that last point rings true I would consider opening a wider button range. Him calling a low % OOP (common for wider shovers but not by any means correct if you can adjust with a wider open range on the button) really helps as well, as that means his fold % is higher and the chips you pick up when he folds are very valuable here.Basically, if a player is 3betting 40% or less I think it's going to almost be a certainty that you should minraise 100% on your button to exploit his play, an exception would be if he calls quite a lot of hands OOP that he doesn't 3bet and isn't terrible postflop. Even if he calls most of his hands he doesn't 3bet, if he's not good postflop or you've picked up some reads to really eliminate a lot of his range and you've found some spots that he takes poor lines with that can be exploited, opening very wide (even 100%) can still be the best play.
So, just repeating what you said Rypac, 20bb you should be minraising every button if your opponent does not 3B at least 40% and is not so good postflop?Did I get that right? Or did I miss another precondition?
The number is probably 50% in theory, as far as the amount he has to 3bet to have an edge (and if he 3bets 50% you just open everything you'd call a jam with at that point thereby leaving him with 0 FE). But when you hit around 40-50% his strategy is much closer to solid against you I believe.The major precondition other than his 3bet % is his call %. The more he folds, the better it is for you, the more he calls (unless he's horrible post and you're killing him there) the less valuable this becomes.