No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players • FullTiltPoker$6 + $0.25 Heads Up Sit & Go Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter BBHero1395 SBdanceflyer1605 Effective Stacks: 47bb Blinds 15/30 Pre-Flop (45, 2 players) Hero is BB danceflyer raises to 90, Hero raises to 240, danceflyer calls 150 Flop (480, 2 players) Hero bets 300, danceflyer goes all-in 1365, Hero goes all-in 855 Turn (3000, 2 players, 2 all-in) River (3000, 2 players, 2 all-in) Final Pot: 3000 Hero shows three of a kind, Fours danceflyer shows a straight, King high danceflyer wins 3000 ( won +1395 ) Hero lost -1395OK, so this has been an almost standard suckout for me in the past ~3 weeks, and its just doing my head in! I understand that "it happens" but tbh it is just happening sooo often i just laugh now - and i pretty much expect it to happen. From being almost 20% ROI from Aug 1 ~ Sept 18 (about 250 matches), I am now at -12 for Aug 1 ~ today! I have NEVER experienced variance like this, either +ve or -ve, and trying to reassure myself that "cards just fall bad sometimes" isnt really working anymore... I dont mean it is tilting me at the tables, I am not making stupid plays with my whole stack - indeed I can have runs of more than 20 hands over 10 games where I am around 70% preflop, allin and lose... How do other people deal with such periods where it just seems like even 95% pot equity isnt enough? Or, only recently having started putting in any reasonable volume at HU SnGs, is this just to be expected every now and then?Yeah this is kind of a beat-vent post, but I need to let it out somewhere and Im too old for a hug from Mum ;-)
You say you've never experienced variance like this either + or -, but did you ever think that maybe your almost 20% roi was a bout of + variance? Just saying it all cancels out in the long run.
I have been playing for 14 years. Prior to this year, I have never had a significant downswing (except once when I played Omaha with $1800 on the table...about 20x my normal stakes...got it in good on the flop and lost to a simple two-card straight draw)...Earlier this year, after PokerStars changed up it's buyin levels, I took a nosedive of $3000 below EV -- unbelievably to me, $20 at a time, as I was shortstacking 100NL. Are you kidding me?150 buyins below EV? AAAAAAAAAARRRRGGG. I was beginning to think that they rigged the site as they changed the buyin levels. (Noooooo, not really, but it seemed like it!)And I know this has been said before but...20 games is nothing. My -EV run continued over thousands and thousands of hands, without any upturn. Granted, shortstacking is high variance in itself, and during that period my allin EV was roughly zero. I was depending on bonuses for my profits, but the -EV swing ate those all up and then a bunch.I decided to give the game up after three or four months of not being able to churn any significant profit. I only need to clear my $5000+ in bonuses remaining, which was going to be a task. I actually planned on losing a significant portion of the bonuses while clearing them. But fortunately I found this site and what I've learned here in three short weeks has made it possible to re-enter the now-tougher fullstack games at a profit.Poker can be very stressful at times, even when you are winning, especially if you depend on it for a living.Because you can only play a couple of tables of HU at once, the variance is going to seem much greater at times than if you were playing eight fullstacked games.I would suggest taking three or four days off and returning with a fresh mind. That's something I've always been very bad about, because I KNOW that I can beat the games. I pretty much forced myself to take a lot of time off these past few months, and I think it's done me some good.
Do you play in stars. Try to be a pusher not a caller :). I am facing variance as well..its sick and there is really anything you can do. Just play, play , play and some day you are crushing again.
Hi mate, I have to agree with fuseo. You definitely where the victim of positive variance! I might have understand your post completely wrong, in that case I'm sorry.Steaming about your losses and variance is OK for me, but i think that there is more going on than just variance!! I understand your post as follows:You are playing the 6$s on stars: 20% ROI from Aug 1 ~ Sept 18 (about 250 matches): you made about 300$ profit playing the 6$ games during this periodI am now at -12 for Aug 1 ~ today!: is this -12% ROI? or -12$.-12$, whishfull thinking from me: you lost 50 buy-ins on the 6$ levels since sept 18?-12%, ROI, you lost about 100 buy-ins since sept 18...? WOWVariance happens offcourse but at the 6$ level your line is supposed to go straight up. I think swings of 50 buy-ins are very rare but maybe they happen. Swings of 100 Buy-ins on the 6$ level can be seen as a big alarm sign!!!!!What you are experiencing is just the result of BAD PLAYS, so it really is time to realise that and analyse you games (or get a coach) and try to get your biggest errors out of it before loosing your complete bankroll!!!
Varience does happen, best thing you can do is just keep playing and it will balance out.