Hi i'm a new member because i want to learn how i can make a good approach to analyse a hand. It's looks like an easy hand, i want to know if it's better to CB or to check behind. I made some thinking but don't now if it's good or the exact math. Anyone an idea?

Seat 2: BB (1655)
Seat 3: Hero (3345)
Hero posts small blind (25)
BB posts big blind (50)
---
Dealing pocket cards
Dealing to Hero: [Ad, 9d]
Hero raises 75 to 100

BB calls 50

--- Dealing flop [Qh, 6c, 4h]

BB checks

Hero bets 100

BB raises 250 to 250
Hero folds

Asume he calls 45% in the BB and that he 3bets 88+, Ajo+, AT+, Kqs and Qjs. When the flop comes, I think when i CB he fold 55% of his range, he checkraise20% (FD, set, 2 pair) and calling 25% (4 or 6, gutshots, few FD some highcards)

I want to barrel every turn card higher then an 7 (no q) and hearts (asume he cr most of his draws)

River, when he checks a heart i gonna bet most of the time, asume he leads FD, Don't bet Q 4 and 6, most scarecards

so we win 55% when we CB, if we get a call i think we can win 50%. we're obv folding to a CR so losing 20%

I think i win like 70% when i CB here and losing like 30%.

Other options, if i check back my hand is pretty face up, that i have a ace-high hand. Also facing very often an turn lead, also river leads. It's gonna be hard to win the pot so i think i lose like 80-85% the hand.

Is this a reasonable approach for the hand? And what about the math?

Thanks