I played the following hand tonight v an opponent. This was the third match against him so I had quite a few notes and stats on his tendencies which included a very high flop check call %. He was quite passive and in one of the previous matches he didn't 3Bet QQ pre flop.
In the hand below when I get to the river the board is paired and there are 3 diamonds. After betting 2 streets and being called I'm in jail to all other Kx, 6x and flushes plus I wasn't sure that I would get a call from his 4x. Therefore I couldn't see the point of a bet but does anyone think that I missed out on some thin value here?
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$6.71+$0.29
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| BB | ningnong | 1745 | |
| SB | Hero | 1255 |
Effective Stacks: 25bb
Blinds 25/50
Pre-Flop (75, 2 players)
Hero is SB
Hero raises to 100, ningnong calls 50
Flop (200, 2 players)
ningnong checks, Hero bets 100, ningnong calls 100
Turn (400, 2 players)
ningnong checks, Hero bets 200, ningnong calls 200
River (800, 2 players)
ningnong checks, Hero checks
Final Pot: 800
ningnong shows two pair, Sixes and Fours
Hero shows two pair, Kings and Sixes
Hero wins 800 ( won +400 )
ningnong lost -400
You're not ahead of enough of the hands he would call with to thin value bet here.
If you had a read that he would always lead the river with his Kx, 6x and flushes, his check to you on river range may be capped at 4x and you could underbet thin to target 4x specifically.
Well played in my opinion.
You might be interested in this article:
http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/general/thin-value/