Hiyaa!
Villain is a loosing player, otherwise unknown.. Do I have to fold here in case he shoves? From the population tendencies they hardly bluff here.If my calculations are correct I have approximately 43% equity. (assuming that he is shoving FD, Kx, 32, 76, and strong 5x). Correct me if I'm wrong with anything, I'm still learning. :)
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$14.69+$0.31
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| BB | Hero | 460 | |
| SB | d2tieu | 540 |
Effective Stacks: 23bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is BB
d2tieu raises to 40, Hero calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
Hero checks, d2tieu bets 40, Hero raises to 105, d2tieu folds
Final Pot: 160
Hero wins 225 ( won +80 )
d2tieu lost -80
/p
/b
You c/r NAI to 105 after villain cbets 40 into 80 @ effective stacks = 460
This means you leave (460 - 40 - 105) = 315 behind after you c/r NAI to 105.
If villain jams, you will need to call 315 for your equity share of a pot = 460 * 2 = 920
So you would need 315 / 920 = 34% equity to be indifferent between calling a jam or folding after you c/r NAI to 105.
If you estimate your opponent will jam over your NAI c/r to 105 here with a range that you have 43% equity against, your c/r NAI will be pot committing.
Why not maximise your fold equity here and semi-bluff c/r jam with your FD?
Thank you Cdon i really apreciate you comments and thoughts and I truly admire your knowledge on these analysis.
As I said I started my hyper HU "career" with chadders0's pack approximately 6 months ago. He's suggestion was to check/raise jam any FD without additional equity. (no overcards - no pair). After I watched zzzztilt's and phl500's "Crushing hyper's" pack I started to raise NAI these 'weaker' FD's.
What do you think about playing these FD's readless? In both video packs they are discussing the 60$'s and 100$'s of hypers. As I calculated the population tendencies in the 15$'s they do not really differ from each other. They are the same basically.Even they are very similar to the 7$'s.
c/r with a FD is pretty standard because your equity from the FD (~ 35%) combined, with your fold equity from c/r makes the play profitable.
That is, villains are usually cbetting a much wider range than just their ~30-35% value range and so will often fold vs a c/r.
Because the profitability of c/r depends on fold equity, you want to take the line which maximises it.
vs some people this is c/r jamming.
Others will perceive your c/r jamming range to be more heavily weighted to semi-bluffs than a c/r NAI, and so c/r NAI actually has more fold equity against these players.
Additionally there is some balance consideration vs thinking players who you will be playing regularly with (if that's your cup of tea).
If you only c/r jam your semi-bluffs and c/r NAI your say top pair plus in these spots, it makes your ranges much more transparent and more easily exploited.
Out of interest I did some pot commitment sensitivity analysis for various effective stacks and c/r sizings for hyper turbos.
Unfortunately the image upload function is not available so I can't share the visual results.
Essentially, with an assumed equity of ~ 35% with your FD against villain's stack off range vs a NAI c/r, typical c/r sizings end up being pot committing at most effective stack sizes in hyper turbo games.
Although a c/r NAI may be pot committing, it may also have better fold equity if villain perceives our c/r jamming range to be heavily weighted to exactly what it is (a semibluffed FD). He may in fact look us up lighter and make a c/r NAI have better expectation than a c/r jam.
In a readless context, you do what maximises your expectation against your typical population tendencies.
With respect to c/r with draws as a semibluff => the profitability of semibluffing draws relies on fold equity. So you should take the line which maximises your fold equity against your villain/population 's perception of your action.