I get min c/r on T93 tt in limped pot @ 16BB.
I think his range is mostly Tx, draws and some air.
But this gimmicky sizing is usually hands with SDV that want me to continue (heavily weighted to Tx) and I think he's more likely to contest the pot with his air by donking rather than c/r.
I feel like I'm value owning myself by jamming my FD which could easily be dominated but I have position and villain kindly layed me very nice odds to continue.
So I flat in position.
He leads out A turn which brings a second FD.
I still have no SDV and I think his range is largely unchanged from the flop because I limped and he checked behind pre => neither of us have Ax here so the A is effectively a blank.
I strongly suspect I'm behind a lot here, so flat again looking to stack off on any 7 or club river.
But I'm not sure if the turn call is profitable? That is, not sure whether I really had the implied odds needed to call a turn bet.
I figured villain would be jamming all rivers given how strong his line looks with both his value and bluff hands so I'd get paid off (except in the cases where my FD outs are dirty because he has a dominating FD).
Is there enough money behind that I can call the turn bet?
Was my line too passive on the flop or should I be jamming there with no SDV?
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$6.85+$0.15
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| SB | Hero | 320 | |
| BB | IRODOTOS1000 | 680 |
Effective Stacks: 16bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is SB
Hero calls 10, IRODOTOS1000 checks
Flop (40, 2 players)
IRODOTOS1000 checks, Hero bets 20, IRODOTOS1000 raises to 40, Hero calls 20
Turn (120, 2 players)
IRODOTOS1000 bets 80, Hero calls 80
River (280, 2 players)
IRODOTOS1000 goes all-in 540, Hero goes all-in 180
Final Pot: 640
Hero shows a straight, Six to Ten
IRODOTOS1000 shows two pair, Tens and Nines
Hero wins 640 ( won +320 )
IRODOTOS1000 lost -320
If you believe your hand is getting paid off on the river, I believe you easily have the implied odds on the turn to call. Definitely enough money behind to call the turn bet....math probably isn't the strongest part of my game at the moment, however I read it like this - might aswell start practicing:
First I look at pot odds:
80 to call on the turn, 200 in the pot. pot odds = 80 / 280 = 0.26 or 26%
You need to win the pot 26% of the time for it to be a profitable call based on pot odds alone.
If we have 12 outs, (9 clubs and 3 7's)...there are 46 cards left unseen in the deck, so our odds of hitting are 12/46 = 0.26 or 26% ?
That means we can pretty much break even with a call based on pot odds, however when we take into account he could have dominating draws etc, you probably end up slightly down.
When we take into account implied odds however, if you believe you will be paid off on the river 100% of the time you hit:
You are essentiially calling 80 to win the pot of 640 after it goes in.
80/640 = 0.125 or 12.5%
So you would only need to win the pot 12.5% of the time, yet you will hit 26% of the time. Obviously this is not exact due to dominating draws, or if you don't get paid off etc, but i think with the amount you have left and his betting line you will get paid off most of the time, and the dominating draws don't seem as likely. I like the call.
Correct any of this if it's wrong.
Cheers
I also agree with not shoving after he raises you on the flop or bets the turn, it doesn't look like he's ever folding there so you will get it in behind if you shove. With position and a strong draw you can just take the value on the call and play it as you did, well played.
Thanks for your comments.
I agree the turn is basically an implied odds problem if we assume villain is never folding river (based on gimmicky flop c/r + turn sizing):
We have to call 80 and the rest of the money will be going in on the river to make a pot of 320*2 = 640.
So our implied odds are 80 / 640 = 12.5%
And we believe we have outs in the:
clubs = 9 outs
7 = 4 outs (minus the 7clubs we already counted) = 3 outs
12 outs = 2*12 - (12-8) = 20%
=> Our estimated equity is 31% and we are being layed implied odds of 12.5%
=> Making this a profitable turn call in position
Can you please just clarify this part for me?
"12 outs = 2*12 - (12-8) = 20%
=> Our estimated equity is 31% "
12 outs should be 12/46 = 26%?
Lol, I don't know where 31% came from.
You can calculate your equity on the flop quickly using [3x + 9] or [4x - (x-9)], where x is the number of outs you have.
I missapplied this rule.
Just a dumb error by me. Thanks for pointing this out :)
For one street to come on the turn, 2x is a pretty close approximation for estimating your equity.
With 12 outs = 12*2 = 24%.
You are, though absolutely correct that with your 2 cards known + 4 cards on the board, there are 6 cards known 52-6 = 46.
And so with 12 outs, you have 12/46 = 26% equity.