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knoxxxy's picture
Suited Connector, 9bbs

Is the shove okay?

Do you think limping or min raising would be an option at 9 bbs? I'd say we can't fold.

 

PokerStars Hand #108360251780: Tournament #831520698, $6.71+$0.29 USD Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level IX (75/150) - 2013/12/11 21:23:01 AWST [2013/12/11 8:23:01 ET]

Table '831520698 1' 2-max Seat #2 is the button

Seat 1: wangwilliam (1390 in chips)

Seat 2: knoxxxy (1610 in chips)

knoxxxy: posts small blind 75

wangwilliam: posts big blind 150

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to knoxxxy [7d 8d]

knoxxxy: raises 1460 to 1610 and is all-in

wangwilliam: calls 1240 and is all-in

Uncalled bet (220) returned to knoxxxy

*** FLOP *** [5s Kd 9h]

*** TURN *** [5s Kd 9h] [8h]

*** RIVER *** [5s Kd 9h 8h] [Qc]

*** SHOW DOWN ***

wangwilliam: shows [Qs Kh] (two pair, Kings and Queens)

knoxxxy: shows [7d 8d] (a pair of Eights)

wangwilliam collected 2780 from pot

cdon3822's picture
Suited connector <

Suited connector < 10BB.
I think open shoving has the best expectation.
Probably just open fold with 43s and 32s.
Can raise call with KQs & QJs vs competently aggressive players.

knoxxxy's picture
thanks  - I thought so, but I

thanks  - I thought so, but I don't have too much confidence in a lot of spots less than 12bbs, i'm trying to work on it.

cdon3822's picture
I think @ 9BB, you want to be

I think @ 9BB, you want to be open jamming or folding with these types of holdings. 
You make most of your expectation from the fold equity, but they're never doing terribly equity-wise when called. 
Min raising may induce a 3b jamming range against which your equity is not great. 
Likewise, limping will likely be jammed over pretty wide @ this depth and you will be folding a decent equity share if you limp fold. 
 
If you fold, you will end up with a stack worth (S-0.5).
If you jam, villain will call with some range C, against which you have e equity. 
So when he folds you will win his BB, and end up with a stack worth (S+1). 
He does this with frequency, (1-c), where c is the % of times he calls. 
And when he calls, you will end up with a stack worth 2*S*e => your equity share of the final pot. 
So your expected stack after jamming = (1 - c)(S+1) + c (2Se)
Therefore jamming is better than folding when:
(1-c)(S+1) + c(2Se) > (S-0.5)
 
Consider what villain might call a jam with @ S. 
For example, @ 9BB, we might expect villain to call with something like: 
[A,KK-22,KQ-K7,QJ-QT,Kx6x-Kx5x,Qx9x-Qx8x,JxTx-Jx9x,Tx9x].
 
Against this range, JxTx has e ~ 42.7%  & c ~ 32%
@ 9BB
(1-c)(S+1) + c(2Se) = (1-0.32)(9+1) + 0.32(2*9*0.427) = 6.80 + 2.46 = 9.26 BB
and
(S-0.5) = 9-0.5 = 8.5 BB
So with JxTx @ 9BB, vs this assumed call open shove range, we do (9.26 - 8.50) = 0.76 BB better by open shoving than by folding. 
(Note in this case it is also +0.26 BB expected profit from your starting stack of 9.0 BB at the start of the hand)
 
Consider a weaker suited connector at the other end of the scale: 3x2x
Against the same range, 3x2x has e~ 33.1% & c ~ 33.6% ~ 34%
@ 9BB
(1-c)(S+1) + c(2Se) = (1-0.34)(9+1) + 0.34(2*9*0.331) = 6.60 + 2.03 = 8.63 BB
and
(S-0.5) = 9-0.5 = 8.5 BB
So with 3x2x @ 9BB vs this assumed call open shove range, we do (8.63-8.5) = 0.13 BB better by open shoving than by folding. 
(BUT note in this case we have 9.0 - 8.63 = - 0.37 BB expected profit from your starting stack of 9.0 BB at the start of the hand)
 
Also note that in both cases your fold equity is worth about 3 times that of your pot equity vs villain's call open jam range. 
 
You can repeat this process for different villain calling ranges and all the other hands in your range not covered by the 2 examples above to explore the profitability of each of your options at various stack depths. Varying villain's ranges & the effective stacks modelled and observing how it affects the range of hands you can profitably open shove is useful for formulating maximally exploitative strategies in the extreme end game of HUSNGs. The results vs some ranges of particular villain tendencies will shock you (hint your pot equity is rarely worse than 35% so the results are largely driven by the width of villain's calling range). 
 
This will certainly give you something to work on :)