We are 10 or so hands into match.
Villain has been opening wide ~ 70-80% from the button, and quite tight OOP.
In my mind, I am tentatively marking him as having regish preflop tendencies.
As such, I am inferring I think he will barrelling a lot in position postflop.
So I make 3barrel call down w 2nd pair on a board runout which is bad for barrelling.
Am I a spewmonkey here?
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$6.85+$0.15
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| SB | callchong | 467 | |
| BB | Hero | 533 |
Effective Stacks: 16bb
Blinds 15/30
Pre-Flop (45, 2 players)
Hero is BB
callchong raises to 60, Hero calls 30
Flop (120, 2 players)
Hero checks, callchong bets 61, Hero calls 61
Turn (242, 2 players)
Hero checks, callchong bets 100, Hero calls 100
River (442, 2 players)
Hero checks, callchong goes all-in 246, Hero calls 246
Final Pot: 934
callchong shows three of a kind, Nines
Hero shows two pair, Nines and Eights
callchong wins 934 ( won +467 )
Hero lost -467
Flatting trash versus 80% open range is a terrible mistake. What is your game plan for this hand?
Hi.
I have 42% equity vs an 80% opening range being layed 25% pot odds from his min raise.
My equity in the pot is worth 0.42 * 3.0 = 1.26 BB
and I am offered an opportunity to buy it for 1.0 BB
More importantly, the times I connect villain's (assumed) postflop aggression will donate a lot of implied value across the flop equity distribution I connect with.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/graph?g=he&h1=8x7y&h2=80%25&s=generic
I will flop > 50% equity 34.5% of the time.
And I expect villain will cbet + barrel enough that he will donate implied value to those hands.
Additionally, it doesn't really matter that I have a trash holding. My opponent doesn't know that.
He has a lot of trash in his range and given that he will be opening wide and cbetting frequently I will have plenty of opportunities to profitably c/r bluff him in spots where I can represent non-"trash" that my perceived flatting range @ 16BB would have hit hard.
I'm a bit confused by your comment?
Can you please clarify?
On the one hand, you say "the times I connect villain's (assumed) postflop aggression will donate a lot of implied value" and then again you say that you can bluff him off his hand.
Your drawing hands need an opponent who pays them off when you hit. But, you cannot simply get it all the money in and being called by him when you flop the nuts and simply bluff him off when you don't hit.
Hi.
Behind those comments is an assumption that I am somewhat competent at gauging how my actions will affect villain's range.
Obviously the two outcomes described happen independently framed within assumptions about how an 80% button opening range interacts with various boards.
87o is certainly towards the bottom of my flatting range. But I think its equity vs villain's range combined with villain's imbalanced postflop tendencies mean I can flat it with better expectation than the -1BB I would yield by simply folding it.
What is your game plan for playing wide openers + frequent cbettors OOP @ 16BB?
Do you have a flatting range at all ?
Gut feeling for 3b calcs says we could probably 3b jam this hand for better expectation than folding to a min raise. These middling unsuited connectors play better flatted. So I prefer to flat.
Can you clarify what action / plan you think yields the best expectation vs this presumed weak reg type of villain?
Being a LAG myself, I am very familiar with the concept of opening over 80%.
Versus an unknown, 16bb deep, I fold 87o. The value is too little.
If you have more details and want them to be included in the analysis, you need to share those. And no, "he is tight OOP" does not count as details.
Of course, if your opponent opens 80% and folds to a min 3bet in 70% of the cases you gonna flat him and min 3bet him with every hand there is. Dito if he cbets 90% and folds to a min 3bet following up his cbet. Almost always you will be able to build a situation, a szenario for that matter, in which a drawing hand can be +EV. That is, why you post hands in forums. Because the people looking at those hands don't need - or wish for that matter - to find *that perfect angle* to make it a fit. They just tell.
Especially for OOP hands, the details (flop cbet %, fold to 3bet, etc. pp) can make a crucial difference, can turn a 'hell no - fold here NOW! turn into; holy mother of god, there is not enough light in the universe to highlight all my ev!.
Hi.
I don't have this level of detail about my opponent.
As I said in my original post, this is our first match together. I have seen him opening very wide in position and he has been very tight out of position over a very small sample of hands.
These preflop frequencies are more likely to be a reg than a fish.
=> As such we can can make weak correlated reads about his other frequencies, such as postflop barrelling
In this case, ironically, I ended up suffering from reverse implied odds, after premising my preflop call on having decent implied value + opportunities to contest against villain's assumed postflop tendencies.
But it's still not clear to me why you made the unqualified statement:
"Flatting trash versus 80% open range is a terrible mistake"
Now I understand that in this position you prefer to simply fold.
I can understand shying away from marginal holdings OOP, but does this mean that you accept that you will be run over OOP vs these guys?
Is your overall gameplan vs these guys to lose / breakeven OOP and try to make up for it in position?
Or do you make up for it by 3b light?
This holding is definitely a grey area type decision.
=> If we can do better 3b it than folding, we should prefer to 3b
=> But to 3b, it also has to be better than flatting
If I fold, I want it to be because folding has better expectation that all other options.
What about the postflop call down?
Do you guys think that an aggressive reg would be barrelling these turn and river cards with his air holdings very often?
i consider myself aggressive in position and i would probably slow down on the river. if i get called twice on that board at that stack depth, chances are villain has already made up his mind to call down no matter what (maybe fold to an A or King though, which would be a good river to barrel off). you´re barreling to get him off an 8 essentially (most 9s will raise and a five will have a hard time calling the turn). plus there are these rare occasions when the BB flops the nuts and slowplays. i think 3barreling is a bad idea here.
cheers
s.
Yer, in villain's position I think 8x almost always calls that river if they c/c the turn.
Not a good card to fire the third barrel with air holdings as a bluff.
As such, I think villain's range is a lot higher more value : bluff ratio than if a high card had binked off on river.
Which makes my call down very marginal, if good at all without reads that villain is a spewtard.
=> Probably not a good call down with the benefit of hindsight
Playing a drawing hand, you need to have an understanding what and how your opponent plays. If you don't have this a 'grey area hand' turns dark like a cave 900 meters below the earth.
Look at the hand you posted. You've lost to a trash (yes,94o, is one of the worst hands one can have in hu), because you did not put him on the 9.
You had no position.
You had no idea how and what he is playing.
You had no +EV spot here.
Hi.
Pushing pre is the best option unless he calls extremely loose vs push, then you would have to flat. Folding pre would be the worst choice. On the river I think its ok to call.
Edit: Read cdons last post and changed my mind :) If you haven't pushed anything yet, maybe pushing would maybe be better than flatting, but in general flatting is probably better, specially since he could be tighter @ 16bb than you think, but not much looser.
I agree, a flat or 3-bet shove seems good. We do not know how his ranges changes when blind became 30, so a flat with this, in my perspective nice hand to play OOP, seems pretty ok. Calling him down its not my style so I have no idea. I would rather go for a donkbet on this flop.
LVT